{"id":3814,"date":"2015-01-01T09:06:37","date_gmt":"2015-01-01T14:06:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3814"},"modified":"2015-01-01T09:06:37","modified_gmt":"2015-01-01T14:06:37","slug":"the-vineyard-of-the-saker-2014-end-of-year-report-and-a-look-into-what-2015-might-bring","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3814","title":{"rendered":"The Vineyard of the Saker: 2014 “End of Year” report and a look into what 2015 might bring"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Vineyard of the Saker: 2014 “End of Year” report and a look into what 2015 might bring<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Introduction:\u00a0<\/b>
\nBy any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don’t think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) “moved” this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the “vectors” of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of “unknown unknowns” (to\u00a0quote Rumsfeld<\/a>) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference.<\/p>\n

The main event and the main actors<\/b>
\nA comprehensive analysis of 2014 should include most major countries on the planet, but this would be too complicated and, ultimately, useless. I think that it is indisputable that the main event of 2014 has been the war in the Ukraine. This crisis not only overshadowed the still ongoing Anglo-Zionist attack on Syria, but it pitted the world’s only two nuclear superpowers (Russia and the USA) directly against each other. And while some faraway countries did have a minor impact on the Ukrainian crisis, especially the BRICS, I don’t think that a detailed discussion of South African or Brazilian politics would contribute much. There is a short list of key actors whose role warrants a full analysis. They are:<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

    \n
  1. The USA<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  2. The Ukrainian Junta<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  3. The Novorussians (DNR+LNR)<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Russia<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  5. The EU<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  6. NATO<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n
  7. China<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    I submit that these seven actors account for 99.99% of the events in the Ukraine and that an analysis of the stance of each one of them is crucial.\u00a0 So let’s take them one by one:<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n

    <\/a><\/a>…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    The Vineyard of the Saker: 2014 “End of Year” report and a look into what 2015 might bring. Introduction:\u00a0 By any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don’t think […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2062,130,279,355,553,694,821,834],"class_list":["post-3814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitics","tag-2062","tag-china","tag-eu","tag-geopolitics-2","tag-nato","tag-russia","tag-ukraine","tag-us"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3814","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3814"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3814\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3815,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3814\/revisions\/3815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3814"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3814"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3814"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}