{"id":38094,"date":"2018-09-21T18:23:53","date_gmt":"2018-09-21T23:23:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38094"},"modified":"2018-09-21T18:23:53","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T23:23:53","slug":"a-path-to-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38094","title":{"rendered":"A Path to War?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"A<\/figure>\n
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A Path to War?<\/a><\/h3>\n

HERE<\/a>).\u00a0I\u2019m passing it along because I think that the 1935-40 period is most analogous to the current period and that it is worth reflecting on what happened then when thinking about US-Chinese relations now.\u00a0To be clear, I\u2019m not saying that we are on a path to a shooting war, but I am saying that we have to watch what path we are on, given these cause-effect relationships that history has taught us and that are described in the template. This excerpt describes how the economic and political conditions of the late 1930s evolved into the wars that followed.\u00a0<\/em><\/header>\n

The Path to War<\/strong><\/p>\n

While the purpose of this chapter has been to examine the debt and economic circumstances in the United States during the 1930s, the linkages between economic conditions and political conditions, both within the United\u00a0States and between the United States and other countries\u2014most importantly Germany and Japan\u2014cannot be\u00a0ignored because economics and geopolitics were very intertwined at the time. Most importantly, Germany and\u00a0Japan had internal conflicts between the haves (the Right) and the have-nots (the Left), which led to more\u00a0populist, autocratic, nationalistic, and militaristic leaders who were given special autocratic powers by their\u00a0democracies to bring order to their badly-managed economies. They also faced external economic and military\u00a0conflicts arising as these countries became rival economic and military powers to existing world powers.<\/p>\n

The case is also a good example of Thucydides\u2019s Trap\u2014where rivalries between countries lead to wars in order to establish which country is more powerful, which are then followed by periods of peace in which the dominant power\/powers get to set the rules because no country can fight them until a rival power emerges, at which time they do it all over again.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Path to War? The following is taken from the 1930s US\u00a0Great Depression chapter of\u00a0A Template for Understanding Big Debt Crises (which is available for free download HERE).\u00a0I\u2019m passing it along because I think that the 1935-40 period is most analogous to the current period and that it is worth reflecting on what happened then […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[21790,130,21791,7888,827,862],"class_list":["post-38094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-geopolitics","tag-bridgewater-associates","tag-china","tag-linkedin","tag-ray-dalio","tag-united-states","tag-war"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38094"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38095,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38094\/revisions\/38095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}