{"id":38079,"date":"2018-09-21T07:15:29","date_gmt":"2018-09-21T12:15:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38079"},"modified":"2018-09-21T07:15:29","modified_gmt":"2018-09-21T12:15:29","slug":"this-deflationary-bull-markets-ending-and-heres-whats-coming-next-for-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=38079","title":{"rendered":"This \u2018Deflationary\u2019 Bull Markets Ending \u2013 And Here\u2019s What\u2019s Coming Next For Investors"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This \u2018Deflationary\u2019 Bull Markets Ending \u2013 And Here\u2019s What\u2019s Coming Next For Investors<\/a><\/h3>\n

After many years of cheap money and asset bubbles \u2013 it looks like the upside is finally over.<\/p>\n

That is \u2013 the potential upside against the amount of risk taken on<\/em> \u2013 is over.<\/p>\n

I often write about investors needing to find asymmetric<\/em> (low risk \u2013 high reward) opportunities<\/em>. And lately \u2013 as I\u2019ve written about earlier this month<\/a> \u2013 many key indicators are now flashing potentially huge downside ahead.<\/p>\n

As I wrote then \u2013 it\u2019s not like I\u2019m predicting markets to tank tomorrow. Or even next week.<\/p>\n

But what I\u2019m getting at is that there\u2019s significantly<\/em> more risk ahead than reward \u2013 at least for the general market and equities.<\/p>\n

I\u2019m not alone thinking this way. . .<\/h4>\n

Bank of America & Merrill Lynch (BAML) recently published a white paper<\/a> with an interesting trading suggestion. . .<\/p>\n

First, they show us that the nearly 10-year monster<\/em> U.S. bull market has been highly<\/em>deflationary. And in case you forgot, deflation refers to when there\u2019s an overall decline in the prices of goods and services.<\/p>\n

The \u2018deflationary assets\u2019<\/em> group includes U.S. investment grade bonds, government bonds, the S&P 500, \u2018growth stocks\u2019, U.S. high yield credit, and U.S. consumer discretionary equities (aka non-essential goods \u2013 such as luxury goods, entertainment, automobiles, etc.) . . .<\/p>\n

And the \u2018inflationary assets\u2019<\/em> group which includes commodities, developed market stocks (excluding U.S. and Canada), U.S. bank stocks, \u2018value stocks\u2019, cash, and treasury inflation protected securities (aka TIPS) . . .<\/p>\n

Since the end of the 2008 crash \u2013 the Fed embarked on a \u2018easy money\u2019 and expansionary path via ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and QE (quantitative easing; aka money printing).<\/p>\n

But even after all this \u2013 deflationary assets have seriously outperformed inflationary assets<\/em>. . .<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This \u2018Deflationary\u2019 Bull Markets Ending \u2013 And Here\u2019s What\u2019s Coming Next For Investors After many years of cheap money and asset bubbles \u2013 it looks like the upside is finally over. That is \u2013 the potential upside against the amount of risk taken on \u2013 is over. I often write about investors needing to find […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[19913,36,15888,202,21786,431,538,19915,661,662,690,1940,1939],"class_list":["post-38079","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-adem-tumerkan","tag-asset-bubble","tag-cheap-money","tag-deflation","tag-deflationary-bull-market","tag-interest-rates","tag-money-printing","tag-palisade-research","tag-qe","tag-quantitative-easing","tag-risk","tag-zero-interest-rate-policy","tag-zirp"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38079"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38079\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":38080,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38079\/revisions\/38080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38079"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}