{"id":37354,"date":"2018-09-05T05:50:54","date_gmt":"2018-09-05T10:50:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=37354"},"modified":"2018-09-05T05:50:54","modified_gmt":"2018-09-05T10:50:54","slug":"italys-stagnant-economy-the-most-likely-trigger-to-europes-existential-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=37354","title":{"rendered":"Italy&#8217;s Stagnant Economy the Most Likely Trigger to Europe&#8217;s Existential Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"cb-featured-image\" class=\"cb-fis cb-fis-fs cb-fis-big cb-fis-block-parallax clearfix\">\n<div class=\"cb-entry-header hentry cb-meta clearfix\">\n<h3 class=\"entry-title cb-entry-title entry-title cb-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/grizzle.com\/italy-europes-existential-crisis\/\">ITALY\u2019S STAGNANT ECONOMY THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGER TO EUROPE\u2019S EXISTENTIAL CRISIS<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><i class=\"fa fa-angle-down\"><\/i><\/div>\n<div id=\"cb-parallax-bg\">\n<div id=\"cb-par-wrap\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"cb-image\" src=\"https:\/\/grizzle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/GR-17-002-CW-weekly-18-09-03.jpg\" alt=\"\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"cb-post-wrap cb-wrap-pad wrap clearfix cb-sidebar-none cb-sidebar-none-narrow cb-embed-fs\">\n<div class=\"cb-main clearfix\">\n<article id=\"post-9011\" class=\"clearfix post-9011 post type-post status-publish format-standard has-post-thumbnail category-global-strategy tag-economy tag-financial-crisis tag-gdp-growth tag-italy tag-turkey tag-us\">\n<section class=\"cb-entry-content clearfix\">With the focus on <a href=\"https:\/\/grizzle.com\/fiscal-easing-monetary-tightening-turkey\">Turkey<\/a> and the potential related fallout in other emerging markets in recent weeks, it is easy to forget about the Eurozone. Yet the current Italian government is likely to trigger a renewed existential crisis in the Eurozone once the Europeans return from the beach and the Italian Government comes up with a budget for 2019 which is likely to put it in direct conflict with the Maastricht Treaty.<\/p>\n<p><strong>BROKEN BRIDGES UNDER THE EURO<\/strong><\/p>\n<div class=\"su-pullquote su-pullquote-align-right font-size:12px\">Italian real GDP has risen by only an annualized 0.4% since 1Q99 and is up only an annualized 0.1% in real GDP per capita.<\/div>\n<p>The collapse of a motorway bridge in Genoa last month resulting in 43 deaths, and Italian Interior Minister Matteo Salvini\u2019s exploitation of that event by blaming Brussels-imposed austerity, is a reminder of what is coming.<\/p>\n<p>Having driven over that particularly rickety bridge on more than one occasion, this writer is not surprised to hear about what happened. Similarly, driving through Italy in recent years always serves as a reminder just how poor Italy has become under the euro. Remember, <a href=\"https:\/\/grizzle.com\/italian-politics-calm-before-storm\/\">Italy<\/a> has recorded almost no growth since the formation of the euro at the beginning of 1999, nearly 20 years ago. Italian real GDP has risen by only an annualized 0.4% since 1Q99 and is up only an annualized 0.1% in real GDP per capita terms over the same period (see following chart).<\/p>\n<h4>ITALY REAL GDP AND REAL GDP PER CAPITA<\/h4>\n<div id=\"attachment_9010\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-9010\" src=\"https:\/\/grizzle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Italy-real-GDP-and-real-GDP-per-capita.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/grizzle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Italy-real-GDP-and-real-GDP-per-capita.png 800w, https:\/\/grizzle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Italy-real-GDP-and-real-GDP-per-capita-300x200.png 300w, https:\/\/grizzle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Italy-real-GDP-and-real-GDP-per-capita-768x513.png 768w, https:\/\/grizzle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Italy-real-GDP-and-real-GDP-per-capita-50x33.png 50w, https:\/\/grizzle.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Italy-real-GDP-and-real-GDP-per-capita-360x240.png 360w\" alt=\"Italy real GDP and real GDP per capita\" width=\"800\" height=\"534\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: CLSA, Datastream<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>The Italian issue is raised again in part because it is timely with the end of the summer holiday season. The view here remains that a systemic event in financial markets is more likely to be triggered by Italy and the Eurozone than other candidates currently discussed by pundits, be it a Donald Trump-triggered trade war, a much anticipated (by talking heads) Chinese currency collapse or overvalued Wall Street FANG stocks.<\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>ITALY\u2019S STAGNANT ECONOMY THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGER TO EUROPE\u2019S EXISTENTIAL CRISIS With the focus on Turkey and the potential related fallout in other emerging markets in recent weeks, it is easy to forget about the Eurozone. Yet the current Italian government is likely to trigger a renewed existential crisis in the Eurozone once the Europeans [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[18209,281,285,18208,1464,818],"class_list":["post-37354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-christopher-wood","tag-europe","tag-eurozone","tag-grizzle","tag-italy","tag-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37354","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=37354"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37354\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":37355,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37354\/revisions\/37355"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=37354"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=37354"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=37354"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}