{"id":36936,"date":"2018-08-22T18:49:20","date_gmt":"2018-08-22T23:49:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36936"},"modified":"2018-08-22T18:49:20","modified_gmt":"2018-08-22T23:49:20","slug":"global-economy-on-precipice-of-secular-decline-detailed-via-shifting-population-demographics-income-and-consumption","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36936","title":{"rendered":"Global Economy On Precipice of Secular Decline…Detailed via Shifting Population, Demographics, Income, and Consumption"},"content":{"rendered":"

Global Economy On Precipice of Secular Decline…Detailed via Shifting Population, Demographics, Income, and Consumption<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n
Many look at global population growth as a given to greater consumption…and looking at the chart below of total global population set to hit 7.8 billion by 2020, one might be forgiven for this viewpoint.\u00a0 However, the reality, when one looks into the numbers, is that growth in global consumption has ended, as I recently detailed, Investing for the “Long Run”? You May Want to Consider This<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0This article\u00a0explains why this population growth will no longer equate to economic or consumptive growth.
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\n0 to 64 year old Global Population<\/u><\/strong>
\nThe 0 to 64 year old global population is about 7 billion persons, as of\u00a02018.\u00a0 The chart below shows the distribution and changing size of that population from 1950 through 2050\u00a0by high income (black line…$12,000+ income per capita including the US\/Canada, most of Europe, Japan, Aus\/NZ, etc.), upper middle (yellow line…$12,000 to $4,000 per capita income including China, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Mexico, Thailand, Columbia,\u00a0etc.), lower middle (red line…$4,000 to $1,000 per\u00a0capita income\u00a0including India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ukraine, Philippines, Egypt, etc.), and low income nations (blue line…less than $1,000 in per capita income including most of sub-Saharan Africa, Afghanistan, Haiti, etc.).\u00a0 The simple takeaway should be that the 0 to 64 year old populations among the high and upper middle income countries have ceased growing and will now\u00a0be shrinking, indefinitely.\u00a0 All 0-64 year old population growth from now forward will be among the lower middle and low income nations of the world.\u00a0 So what?
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\nIncome by Age of Head of Household<\/u><\/strong>
\nWhy the focus on 0 to 64 year old populations?\u00a0 Average income and expenditures vary greatly by the age of the head of household.<\/div>\n
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\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Global Economy On Precipice of Secular Decline…Detailed via Shifting Population, Demographics, Income, and Consumption Many look at global population growth as a given to greater consumption…and looking at the chart below of total global population set to hit 7.8 billion by 2020, one might be forgiven for this viewpoint.\u00a0 However, the reality, when one looks […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[16387,162,2889,14704,421,21354,21353],"class_list":["post-36936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-chris-hamilton","tag-consumption","tag-demographics","tag-economica","tag-income","tag-population-shift","tag-secular-decline"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36936","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36936"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36936\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36937,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36936\/revisions\/36937"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36936"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36936"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36936"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}