{"id":36919,"date":"2018-08-22T06:39:45","date_gmt":"2018-08-22T11:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36919"},"modified":"2018-08-22T06:39:45","modified_gmt":"2018-08-22T11:39:45","slug":"its-the-debt-cycle-and-other-things","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36919","title":{"rendered":"It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things)"},"content":{"rendered":"
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It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things)<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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The debt cycle, tariffs, and central bank hubris have created the conditions for a spectacular unwind of risk assets.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n
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Yesterday in Turkey: Lira Bulls and Bears Duke it Out On Twitter <\/a>I asked, “Is there a bullish case for the Lira? One person thinks so. Most think otherwise.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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I intended to do a follow-up post today, but Saxo Bank’s Steen Jakobsen covered most of the essentials in a recent post that I just saw today.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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I have some thoughts at the end in regards to Turkey and the “other things”.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Macro Digest: It’s Not Turkey, It’s the Debt Cycle<\/a> by Steen Jakobsen, emphasis mine<\/em>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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There is currently a lot of focus on Turkey, and for good reason, but Turkey is really only a second or third derivative of the global macro story.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Turkey represents the catalyst for a new theme, which is \u201ctoo much debt and current account deficits equals crisis\u201d. In that sense, we have come full cycle from deficits and debt mattering in the 1980s and \u201890s but not in the \u201800s and \u201810s post- the Nasdaq crash and great financial crisis under the biggest monetary experiment of all time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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In our view, the order of sequence for this crisis is as follows:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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  1. The debt cycle is on pause as first China and now the US have deleveraged and ‘normalised’.<\/li>\n
  2. The stock of credit or the ‘credit cake’ has collapsed. First it was the ‘change of the change of credit’, or the credit impulse, which tanked in late 2017 and into 2018. Now it is also the stock of credit. Right now, global M2 over global growth is less than one, meaning the world is trying to achieve 6% global growth with less than 2.5% growth in its monetary base\u2026 the exact opposite of the 00\u2019s and \u201810s central bank- and politician-driven model.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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    \u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    It’s the Debt Cycle (And Other Things) The debt cycle, tariffs, and central bank hubris have created the conditions for a spectacular unwind of risk assets. Yesterday in Turkey: Lira Bulls and Bears Duke it Out On Twitter I asked, “Is there a bullish case for the Lira? One person thinks so. Most think otherwise.” […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[175,195,4085,14648,13390,690,748,818],"class_list":["post-36919","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-credit","tag-debt","tag-debt-cycle","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mishtalk","tag-risk","tag-steen-jakobsen","tag-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36919","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36919"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36919\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36920,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36919\/revisions\/36920"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36919"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36919"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36919"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}