{"id":3690,"date":"2014-12-29T08:55:50","date_gmt":"2014-12-29T13:55:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3690"},"modified":"2014-12-29T08:55:50","modified_gmt":"2014-12-29T13:55:50","slug":"petroleum-truth-report-david-hughes-weighs-in-on-the-fracking-fallacy-debate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3690","title":{"rendered":"Petroleum Truth Report: David Hughes Weighs In on The Fracking Fallacy Debate"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/petroleumtruthreport.blogspot.ca\/2014\/12\/david-hughes-weighs-in-on-fracking.html\">Petroleum Truth Report: David Hughes Weighs In on The Fracking Fallacy Debate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"color: #555544; font-family: tahoma, 'Trebuchet MS', lucida, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;\">In the current debate about the\u00a0<i>Nature<\/i>\u00a0article\u00a0<a style=\"font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; color: #669922; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/news\/natural-gas-the-fracking-fallacy-1.16430\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;The Fracking Fallacy,&#8221;<\/a>\u00a0the discussion has focused on estimates of cumulative production of shale gas plays by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and The Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas (UT\/BEG).\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;\"><a style=\"font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; color: #669922; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.postcarbon.org\/our-people\/david-hughes\/\" target=\"_blank\">David Hughes<\/a>\u00a0provides another estimate in his recent post\u00a0<a style=\"font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; color: #669922; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.postcarbon.org\/fracking-fracas\/\" target=\"_blank\">&#8220;Fracking Fracas: The Trouble with Optimistic Shale Gas Projections by the U.S. Department of Energy<\/a>,&#8221; a summary of his comprehensive study of all U.S. shale plays\u00a0<i><a style=\"font-weight: bold; text-decoration: none; color: #669922; background-image: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-position: initial initial; background-repeat: initial initial;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.postcarbon.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/Drilling-Deeper_FULL.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Drilling Down<\/a><\/i>\u00a0published by The Post Carbon Institute.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;\">The Fracking Fallacy debate is important because it casts doubt on the reliability of government estimates of our natural gas supply. \u00a0If U.S. gas production is in decline by the early 2020s as described in the\u00a0<i>Nature<\/i>\u00a0article, or sooner as I suspect, then important policy decisions about the export of natural gas and the retirement of coal-fired electric power plants have been based on questionable information.\u00a0<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;\"><br \/>\n<\/span><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;\">Cumulative production estimates are interesting but do not address the economics of shale plays. \u00a0Proven reserves provide a more meaningful estimate because they supposedly represent volumes of oil and gas that can be produced commercially at a particular price. \u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml>\n <o:OfficeDocumentSettings>\n  <o:AllowPNG\/>\n <\/o:OfficeDocumentSettings>\n<\/xml><![endif]--> <!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml>\n <w:WordDocument>\n  <w:View>Normal<\/w:View>\n  <w:Zoom>0<\/w:Zoom>\n  <w:TrackMoves\/>\n  <w:TrackFormatting\/>\n  <w:PunctuationKerning\/>\n  <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas\/>\n  <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false<\/w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>\n  <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false<\/w:IgnoreMixedContent>\n  <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false<\/w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>\n  <w:DoNotPromoteQF\/>\n  <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US<\/w:LidThemeOther>\n  <w:LidThemeAsian>JA<\/w:LidThemeAsian>\n  <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE<\/w:LidThemeComplexScript>\n  <w:Compatibility>\n   <w:BreakWrappedTables\/>\n   <w:SnapToGridInCell\/>\n   <w:WrapTextWithPunct\/>\n   <w:UseAsianBreakRules\/>\n  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