{"id":36717,"date":"2018-08-16T07:18:37","date_gmt":"2018-08-16T12:18:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36717"},"modified":"2018-08-16T07:18:37","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T12:18:37","slug":"all-time-low-spare-capacity-could-send-oil-to-150","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36717","title":{"rendered":"All-Time Low Spare Capacity Could Send Oil To $150"},"content":{"rendered":"

All-Time Low Spare Capacity Could Send Oil To $150<\/a><\/h3>\n\"markets\"<\/picture>\n
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While the oil market and analysts are trying to guesstimate how much Iranian oil the U.S. sanctions will stifle later this year, they all agree that the return of the sanctions is the market\u2019s key bullish driver as well as the largest \u2018known unknown\u2019 for oil prices later this year and into 2019.<\/p>\n

Some ultra-bullish hedge funds think that the U.S. sanctions will remove much more than 1 million bpd of Iranian oil from the market. Considering the low spare capacity for a quick ramp-up of production elsewhere, some hedge fund managers expect oil prices to jump to as high as $150 a barrel<\/a> in 18 to 24 months.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur view is that by November 4, we will have lost between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels [of output] a day. It is a very big number. That\u2019s based on the view that the U.S. will allow a few temporary exception waivers,\u201d Jean-Louis Le Mee, CEO at London-based Westbeck hedge fund told Reuters. \u201cUltimately, we could see losses from Iran exceed 2 million barrels a day,\u201d Le Mee said.<\/p>\n

According to Pierre Andurand, who manages the US$1.2-billion Andurand Commodities Fund, the world\u2019s spare capacity is at its lowest ever, and this will be a real issue with global oil supply.<\/p>\n

Replying to one of President Trump\u2019s tweets blaming OPEC for the \u201ctoo high\u201d oil prices, Andurand said<\/a> in mid-June that \u201cOPEC has the lowest spare capacity ever right now. There is going to be a real issue. Prices will be above $150 in less than 2 years. Eventually higher prices will bring more supply. But right now too little supply coming over the next few years despite US supply growth.\u201d<\/p>\n

Generalist investors don\u2019t have such bullish views, but \u201cthis is going to catch everybody by surprise,\u201d Westbeck\u2019s chief investment officer Will Smith told Reuters.<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

All-Time Low Spare Capacity Could Send Oil To $150 While the oil market and analysts are trying to guesstimate how much Iranian oil the U.S. sanctions will stifle later this year, they all agree that the return of the sanctions is the market\u2019s key bullish driver as well as the largest \u2018known unknown\u2019 for oil […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[441,2245,20854,5332,14603,827,17693],"class_list":["post-36717","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-iran","tag-oil-market","tag-oil-spare-capacity","tag-oilprice-com","tag-tsvetana-paraskova","tag-united-states","tag-us-economic-sanctions"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36717","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36717"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36717\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36718,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36717\/revisions\/36718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36717"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36717"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36717"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}