{"id":36711,"date":"2018-08-16T07:06:20","date_gmt":"2018-08-16T12:06:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36711"},"modified":"2018-08-16T07:06:20","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T12:06:20","slug":"the-turkish-emerging-market-timebomb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36711","title":{"rendered":"The Turkish Emerging Market Timebomb"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"row \">\n<figure class=\"columns image image--lead image--ratio-2-1\"><picture class=\"fbg-image__element\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" lazyunload lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/6c57b5de1e6a325fe4b897c3b60bc402.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/6c57b5de1e6a325fe4b897c3b60bc402.jpg\" \/><\/picture><span class=\"image__copyright\">YASIN AKGUL\/AFP\/Getty Images<\/span><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row fbg-image article__container\" data-sticky-target=\"interaction-article\" data-page-area=\"article-top\" data-sticky-offset=\"20%\">\n<h3 class=\"small-12 medium-10 medium-offset-1 large-8 large-offset-2 xlarge-7 columns article__title article__title--main u-mb-se\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/turkey-currency-crisis-by-jim-o-neill-2018-08\">The Turkish Emerging Market Timebomb<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"small-12 medium-10 medium-offset-1 large-8 large-offset-2 xlarge-6 xlarge-offset-3 columns\">\n<div class=\"article__abs u-mt-se\" dir=\"ltr\">\n<p>As the Turkish lira continues to depreciate against the dollar, fears of a classic emerging-market crisis have come to the fore. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan&#8217;s populist economic policies have finally caught up to him, and sooner or later, he will have to make nice with his country&#8217;s traditional Western allies.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"article__body article__body--commentary english\" dir=\"ltr\" data-page-area=\"article-body\">\n<p data-line-id=\"3805276d330648f899598aa4e9de7e04\">LONDON \u2013 Turkey\u2019s falling currency and deteriorating financial conditions lend credence, at least for some people, to the notion that \u201ca crisis is a terrible thing to waste.\u201d I suspect that many Western policymakers, in particular, are not entirely unhappy about Turkey\u2019s plight.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"inlay inlay--slide slide__container show-for-medium editorpick-container\">\n<article id=\"editor-pick-5b73fc4b78b6c723f8466e7b\" class=\"listing slide \" data-url=\"turkey-broken-relationship-with-the-west-by-richard-n--haass-2018-08\" data-page-area=\"editorpicks\">\n<figure class=\"image image--ratio-16-9\"><picture><source srcset=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.16-9-medium.1.jpg\" media=\"(max-width: 450px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.16-9-medium.1.jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.16-9-small.1.jpg\" media=\"(max-width: 1200px)\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.16-9-small.1.jpg\" \/><source srcset=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.16-9-medium.1.jpg\" data-srcset=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.16-9-medium.1.jpg\" \/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\" lazyunload lazyloaded\" src=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.jpg\" data-src=\"https:\/\/webapi.project-syndicate.org\/library\/aa8cb8cb2cd1e6b212335384dc89612b.jpg\" \/><\/picture><\/figure>\n<header class=\"listing__header\"><\/header>\n<\/article>\n<div class=\"inlay__controls\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<div class=\"flex button__group slide__nav\">To veteran economic observers, Turkey\u2019s troubles are almost a textbook case of an emerging-market flop. It is August, after all, and back in the 1990s, one could barely go a single year without some kind of financial crisis striking in the dog days of summer.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p data-line-id=\"359b98c5fb4b4ae0bbe480211035cbed\">But more to the point, Turkey has a large, persistent current-account deficit, and a belligerent leader who does not realize \u2013 or refuses to acknowledge \u2013 that his populist economic policies are unsustainable. Moreover, Turkey has become increasingly dependent on overseas investors (and probably some wealthy domestic investors, too).<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"5f138c078263422c965ebd2f40d68c5a\">Given these slowly gestating factors, markets have long assumed that Turkey was headed for a currency crisis. In fact, such worries were widespread as far back as the fall of 2013, when I was in Istanbul interviewing business and financial leaders for a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/magazine-25548060\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BBC Radio series<\/a> on emerging economies. At that time, markets were beginning to fear that monetary-policy normalization and an end to quantitative easing in the United States would have dire consequences globally. The Turkish lira has been flirting with disaster ever since.<\/p>\n<div class=\"inlay onpoint onpoint--bg special\" data-page-subarea=\"promotion-onpoint\">\n<div class=\"special__wrapper\">\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>YASIN AKGUL\/AFP\/Getty Images The Turkish Emerging Market Timebomb As the Turkish lira continues to depreciate against the dollar, fears of a classic emerging-market crisis have come to the fore. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo\u011fan&#8217;s populist economic policies have finally caught up to him, and sooner or later, he will have to make nice with his [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[8535,18288,8402,818],"class_list":["post-36711","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-emerging-market","tag-jim-oneill","tag-project-syndicate","tag-turkey"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36711","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36711"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36711\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36712,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36711\/revisions\/36712"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36711"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36711"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36711"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}