{"id":36309,"date":"2018-07-31T08:03:07","date_gmt":"2018-07-31T13:03:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36309"},"modified":"2018-07-31T08:03:32","modified_gmt":"2018-07-31T13:03:32","slug":"kass-tops-are-processes-we-may-be-in-that-process","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36309","title":{"rendered":"Kass: Tops Are Processes &#038; We May Be In That Process"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"http:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/kass-tops-are-processes-we-may-be-in-that-process\/\">Kass: Tops Are Processes &amp; We May Be In That Process<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"content\">\n<div class=\"pf-content\">\n<h2><a href=\"http:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Kass-Tops-Are-Processes.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-35263 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Kass-Tops-Are-Processes.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 953px) 100vw, 953px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Kass-Tops-Are-Processes.png 953w, http:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Kass-Tops-Are-Processes-300x184.png 300w, http:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Kass-Tops-Are-Processes-768x471.png 768w\" alt=\"\" width=\"953\" height=\"584\" \/><\/a><\/h2>\n<p><strong>The Yield Curve Will Likely Invert by November, 2018<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Economic growth is less synchronized than the consensus believes<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>On a trending and rate of change basis the economic data is slowing down<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The Fed\u2019s continued pivot to tighter money will likely lead to curve inversion \u2013 which will likely stoke fears of recession<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote><p><strong><em>\u201cChina, Europe and the Emerging Market Economic Data All Signal Slowdown<\/em><\/strong><em>: It\u2019s in the early innings of such a slowdown based on any realtime analysis of the economic data. The rate of change slowdown (on a trending basis) is as clear as day. A rising US Dollar and weakening emerging market economic growth sows the seeds of a possible US dollar funding crisis.\u201d\u00a0<\/em><em>\u2013 Kass Diary, <a href=\"https:\/\/realmoneypro.thestreet.com\/dougs-daily-diary?published%5Bvalue%5D%5Bdate%5D=2018-07-23\">Investors are Not Being Compensated For Risk<\/a><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>At economic peaks everything on the surface <a href=\"https:\/\/realmoneypro.thestreet.com\/dougs-daily-diary?published%5Bvalue%5D%5Bdate%5D=2018-07-23\">looks Rosy<\/a> <em>(except to some observors like myself and Rosie (David Rosenberg)!)<\/em> \u2013 until it doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n<p>Towards that end, here is what I wrote yesterday about US and overseas economic growth in my two part\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/kass-the-underpricing-of-risk\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">opener<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><em><strong>\u201cGlobal Growth Is Less Synchronized <\/strong><\/em><em>as the trajectory of worldwide growth is becoming more ambiguous. I have featured the erosion in soft and hard high frequency data in the US, Europe, China and elsewhere extensively in my Diary \u2013 so I wont clutter this missive with too many charts. But needless to say (<a href=\"http:\/\/realinvestmentadvice.com\/ria-chart-book-q2-2018-most-important-charts\">and seen by these charts<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-04-19\/saxo-bank-reality-check-euro-area-economy\">here<\/a>), with economic surprises moderating from a year ago and in the case of Europe falling to two year lows \u2013 we are likely at \u2018Peak Global Growth\u2019 now. (The data is even worse in South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia and Thailand).<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kass: Tops Are Processes &amp; We May Be In That Process The Yield Curve Will Likely Invert by November, 2018 Economic growth is less synchronized than the consensus believes On a trending and rate of change basis the economic data is slowing down The Fed\u2019s continued pivot to tighter money will likely lead to curve [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[20580,240,303,4240,21033,8625,15470,839,3650,10388],"class_list":["post-36309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-doug-kass","tag-economic-growth","tag-fed","tag-market-top","tag-process","tag-quantitative-tightening","tag-real-investment-advice","tag-us-dollar","tag-us-federal-reserve","tag-yield-curve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36309","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36309"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36309\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36310,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36309\/revisions\/36310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36309"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36309"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36309"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}