{"id":36049,"date":"2018-07-19T08:14:39","date_gmt":"2018-07-19T13:14:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36049"},"modified":"2018-07-19T08:14:39","modified_gmt":"2018-07-19T13:14:39","slug":"oil-prices-at-risk-of-economic-downturn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=36049","title":{"rendered":"Oil Prices At Risk Of Economic Downturn"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil Prices At Risk Of Economic Downturn<\/a><\/h3>\n\"Oil\"<\/picture>\n
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Oil prices have retreated as disrupted supply from Libya has started to come back online, threatening the recent gains in oil prices. But a bigger threat to crude over the second half of 2018 and into 2019 is a slowdown in the global economy.<\/p>\n

The International Monetary Fund warned in its latest World Economic Outlook<\/a> that a series of threats to economic growth are brewing. The Fund maintained its projection for solid global GDP growth of 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019 \u2013 rather robust figures \u2013 but said that \u201cthe expansion is becoming less even, and risks to the outlook are mounting.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cGrowth generally remains strong in advanced economies, but it has slowed in many of them, including countries in the euro area, Japan, and the United Kingdom,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n

As John Kemp of Reuters points out<\/a>, these are signs that the U.S. economy is in a late stage of an economic growth cycle, with growth topping out, inflation picking up, rising interest rates and an inversion in the yield curve for U.S. treasuries, which tends to precede recessions.<\/p>\n

As has happened in the past, the last phase of an economic expansion has often coincided with a surge in oil prices, which is then followed by both a dip in oil prices and an economic contraction. The recessions following the price spikes in 1973 and 2008 are the most obvious, but not the only examples.<\/p>\n

Others take a different tack, arguing that rising oil prices need not be a drag on the economy. \u201c[T]he rise in oil and commodity prices today is leading to a recovery in pricing power for commodity companies and an improvement in terms of trade for commodity-exporting nations, thus providing support to capex in these segments,\u201d Morgan Stanley\u2019s chief economist and global head of economics Chetan Ahya wrote<\/a> in May.’<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oil Prices At Risk Of Economic Downturn Oil prices have retreated as disrupted supply from Libya has started to come back online, threatening the recent gains in oil prices. But a bigger threat to crude over the second half of 2018 and into 2019 is a slowdown in the global economy. The International Monetary Fund […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[1752,366,391,418,434,6010,592,5332,2752],"class_list":["post-36049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-economic-contraction","tag-global-economy","tag-growth","tag-imf","tag-international-monetary-fund","tag-nick-cunningham","tag-oil-price","tag-oilprice-com","tag-world-economic-outlook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=36049"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36049\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36050,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36049\/revisions\/36050"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=36049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=36049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=36049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}