{"id":35895,"date":"2018-07-11T08:53:23","date_gmt":"2018-07-11T13:53:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=35895"},"modified":"2018-07-11T08:53:23","modified_gmt":"2018-07-11T13:53:23","slug":"the-markets-peaked-this-historical-indicator-signals-potentially-huge-losses-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=35895","title":{"rendered":"\u2018The Markets Peaked\u2019 \u2013 This Historical Indicator Signals Potentially Huge Losses Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/div>\n

\u2018The Markets Peaked\u2019 \u2013 This Historical Indicator Signals Potentially Huge Losses Ahead<\/a><\/h3>\n

Understanding cycle theory is still one of the most important<\/em> things an investor can do.<\/p>\n

Buying at the peak is a surefire way to increase your downside risk \u2013 even if your investment is sound. And buying at the bottom gives you a thick margin of safety \u2013 downside protection.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why the best investors pay so much attention to where they are in the cycle<\/em>.<\/p>\n

The value-investing contrarian who runs Oak Tree Capital \u2013 Howard Marks \u2013 has written about the importance of cycles.<\/p>\n

In fact \u2013 in his book, The Most Important Thing Illuminated<\/em>, he writes two key rules. . .<\/p>\n

\u201cRule number one: most things will prove to be cyclical\u2026 Rule number two: some of the greatest opportunities for gains and loss come when other people forget rule number one\u2026\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

And I fully agree with him. . .<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a powerful indicator that shows global economic expansion and contraction \u2013 it\u2019s known as the \u2018Global Wave\u2019 (GW).<\/p>\n

And going back the last 30 years \u2013 within a year of when things peak<\/em> (top), there\u2019s either a recession or some market crisis. And when there\u2019s a trough <\/em>(bottom), it\u2019s followed by growth and gains.<\/p>\n

Today \u2013 the Global Wave indicator\u2019s signaling economic growth has peaked<\/strong> for this cycle. And both markets and economies are going to underperform<\/strong> for at least<\/em> the next 12 months.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

To be fair \u2013 some post-market peak downturns were brief and didn\u2019t result in huge market sell offs. But the ones that did \u2013 like the 2001 and 2009 recessions<\/em> \u2013 were brutal.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why we need to ask ourselves a very important question: what\u2019s most likely to happen over the next 12 months \u2013 is the Global Wave Indicator just noise(useless) or is it a signal(useful)?<\/em><\/p>\n

If we look at the history of the GW, it\u2019s not hard to see that things are most likely going to go down from here. . .<\/p>\n

\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u2018The Markets Peaked\u2019 \u2013 This Historical Indicator Signals Potentially Huge Losses Ahead Understanding cycle theory is still one of the most important things an investor can do. Buying at the peak is a surefire way to increase your downside risk \u2013 even if your investment is sound. And buying at the bottom gives you a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[19913,7410,3784,19915,2443],"class_list":["post-35895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-adem-tumerkan","tag-cycle-theory","tag-market-peak","tag-palisade-research","tag-stock-markets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35895"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35895\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35896,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35895\/revisions\/35896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}