{"id":35297,"date":"2018-06-20T08:54:26","date_gmt":"2018-06-20T13:54:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=35297"},"modified":"2018-06-20T08:54:26","modified_gmt":"2018-06-20T13:54:26","slug":"gom-first-quarter-2018-production-summary","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=35297","title":{"rendered":"GoM: First Quarter 2018, Production Summary"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/gom-first-quarter-2018-production-summary\/\">GoM: First Quarter 2018, Production Summary<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><strong>crude and condensate<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.data.boem.gov\/\">BOEM <\/a>has March 2018 production at 1696 kbpd, which is down 1% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year (March 2017 was the peak production month for GoM so far). <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eia.gov\/dnav\/pet\/hist\/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&amp;s=mcrfp3fm2&amp;f=m\">EIA<\/a> numbers were very similar, although last month\u2019s were higher and haven\u2019t been revised yet \u2013 typically EIA numbers end up almost exactly corresponding to the BOEM reported total qualified lease production, whereas BOEM can be a little higher, maybe including test wells or non-qualified leases.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/GoMPOB1Q18001.png\" alt=\"chart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The major new project, Stampede, started in January, has no reported production numbers yet. BOEM and EIA estimate non-reported values and then retrospectively adjust their reports when actual numbers are available. I don\u2019t know how they estimate new production but Stampede could produce around 60 kbpd with current plans, though likely a lot less initially as only one of two leases has been ramping up. I\u2019ve assumed 20 and 40 kbpd for February and March respectively, which still might be high. Even allowing for that, and assuming other late numbers are the same as the previous month, since December EIA and BOEM both have estimates about 30 to 40 kbpd higher than the reported lease and well production numbers (which always match closely) would suggest. Usually the difference is no more than ten. It is unlikely that the other late numbers, of which there are few, and none for all four months, will show such large, sudden and unexplained increases so either I\u2019m missing something (maybe a lease not yet included in the numbers, but also not reported as starting up) or there could be some future downward adjustments.<\/p>\n<p>Rigel and Otis are still off-line following the failure at a subsea manifold last October and are taking out about 22 kbpd plus some gas (Otis is a small gas field). Great White, Stones (for the full month) and Caesar\/Tonga all had noticeable downtime in March taking about 90 kbpd off-stream.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/GoMPOB1Q18002.png\" alt=\"chart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><br \/>\n<span id=\"more-19713\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u2026click on the above link to read the rest of the article\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>GoM: First Quarter 2018, Production Summary crude and condensate BOEM has March 2018 production at 1696 kbpd, which is down 1% month-on-month and 4% year-on-year (March 2017 was the peak production month for GoM so far). EIA numbers were very similar, although last month\u2019s were higher and haven\u2019t been revised yet \u2013 typically EIA numbers [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[15477,595,6245],"class_list":["post-35297","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-george-kaplan","tag-oil-production","tag-peak-oil-barrel"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35297","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=35297"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35297\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":35298,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/35297\/revisions\/35298"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=35297"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=35297"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=35297"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}