{"id":3501,"date":"2014-12-24T10:27:08","date_gmt":"2014-12-24T15:27:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3501"},"modified":"2014-12-24T10:27:08","modified_gmt":"2014-12-24T15:27:08","slug":"oftwominds-charles-hugh-smith-i-call-bs-on-projections-of-a-decade-of-20barrel-oil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=3501","title":{"rendered":"oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: I Call BS on Projections of a Decade of $20\/Barrel Oil"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"http:\/\/charleshughsmith.blogspot.ca\/2014\/12\/i-call-bs-on-projections-of-decade-of.html\">oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith: I Call BS on Projections of a Decade of $20\/Barrel Oil<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"display: inline; height: 0px; overflow-x: visible; overflow-y: visible; padding: 1px 0px 1px 0px; margin: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><i style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\">The ability of oil exporters to trigger a short-term collapse in price does not automatically translate into an ability to control the financial conflagration such a crash ignites.<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><b style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><\/span><\/b><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><b style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\">My BS detector went off when two stories with similar headlines touting $20\/barrel oil were published on the same day.<\/b>\u00a0Color me skeptical, but it&#8217;s almost as if mere $40\/barrel oil is no longer enough to get the blood flowing, so both stories blared the more extreme $20\/barrel price point.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><a style=\"color: #4c4c4c; text-decoration: underline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bloombergview.com\/articles\/2014-12-21\/ready-for-20-oil\" target=\"resource\"><span style=\"color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\">Ready for $20 Oil?<\/span><\/a><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><a style=\"color: #004387; text-decoration: underline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" href=\"http:\/\/blogs.reuters.com\/anatole-kaletsky\/2014\/12\/19\/the-reason-oil-could-drop-as-low-as-20-per-barrel\/\" target=\"resource\"><span style=\"color: black; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\">The reason oil could drop as low as $20 per barrel<\/span><\/a><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><b style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\">Neither story depicted $20\/barrel oil as a brief spike<\/b>&#8211;rather, each presented a future of sub-$50\/barrel oil that could last for years or even a decade or longer, matching the period of cheap oil that ran from the mid-1980s to the late 1990s.<\/span><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\">I have no problem with the idea that geopolitics is driving supply excesses, the goal being to crash the oil revenues of enemies&#8211;that&#8217;s part of my Oil Head-Fake scenario:\u00a0<a style=\"color: #004387; text-decoration: underline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.oftwominds.com\/blogdec14\/oil-headfake12-14.html\" target=\"resource\">The Oil-Drenched Black Swan, Part 4: The Head-Fake Disruption Ahead<\/a>\u00a0(December 4, 2014).<\/span><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><a style=\"color: #004387; text-decoration: underline; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.oftwominds.com\/blogdec14\/oil-dominoes12-14.html\" target=\"resource\">The Financialized-Oil Dominoes Are Toppling<\/a>\u00a0(December 12, 2014)<\/span><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><br style=\"padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><span style=\"font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\">The idea that global demand is stagnating is also common sense, given that the global economy is stagnating.<\/span><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: white; padding: 0px; margin: 0px;\"><!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml>\n <o:OfficeDocumentSettings>\n  <o:AllowPNG\/>\n <\/o:OfficeDocumentSettings>\n<\/xml><![endif]--> <!-- [if gte mso 9]><xml>\n <w:WordDocument>\n  <w:View>Normal<\/w:View>\n  <w:Zoom>0<\/w:Zoom>\n  <w:TrackMoves\/>\n  <w:TrackFormatting\/>\n  <w:PunctuationKerning\/>\n  <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas\/>\n  <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false<\/w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>\n  <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false<\/w:IgnoreMixedContent>\n  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