{"id":34734,"date":"2018-06-04T06:32:56","date_gmt":"2018-06-04T11:32:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34734"},"modified":"2018-06-04T06:32:56","modified_gmt":"2018-06-04T11:32:56","slug":"what-patient-zero-japan-can-tell-us-about-china-the-developed-world-at-large","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34734","title":{"rendered":"What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large"},"content":{"rendered":"

What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large<\/a><\/h3>\n
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To see the future, sometimes you have to look to the past.\u00a0 Japan is patient zero in\u00a0the global epidemic of slowing\u00a0growth\u00a0and although Japan was assumed to be the emerging world power in the ’80’s, we now know better.\u00a0 The title of emergent power now rests with\u00a0China…and for the same reasons it didn’t work out for Japan, it won’t work out for China.\u00a0 To make my case, I’ll use UN population data coupled with EIA total primary energy data (cumulative energy consumption from coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, and renewables), plus EIA fore-ward looking\u00a0forecast data (the International Energy Outlook, 2017 or IEO’17).<\/p>\n

First, Japan.<\/p>\n

The Japanese 15 to 60 year old population peaked in 1993 and declined over 15% by 2018.\u00a0 The core\u00a0population will continue falling, down 24% by 2030,\u00a0and 34% by 2040.\u00a0 Energy consumption growth\u00a0began stalling in 1997, consumption\u00a0peaked in 2006, and\u00a0has declined 17% from the ’06 peak through 2015. However, the EIA estimates the falls seen since ’06 will cease shortly\u00a0and energy consumption will stabilize through 2040.
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\nThe chart below breaks down the\u00a0annual change in the 15 to 60 year old Japanese population versus the annual change in energy consumption.\u00a0 The twin deceleration should be fairly obvious.
\n<\/p>\n

Below, the actual data as above versus the EIA IEO’17 forecast.\u00a0 While the core population will fall at an even faster rate, the EIA forecasts energy consumption will stabilize (against all logical rationale)?!?<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
To round out the\u00a0picture, the\u00a0Japanese 15 to 60 year old population versus 60+ year old population.\u00a0 All growth is currently\u00a0in the 60+ population until it too is projected to peak in 2040 and begin declining.<\/p>\n
<\/div>\n
What does this mean for China?<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What Patient Zero, Japan, Can Tell Us About China & The Developed World At Large To see the future, sometimes you have to look to the past.\u00a0 Japan is patient zero in\u00a0the global epidemic of slowing\u00a0growth\u00a0and although Japan was assumed to be the emerging world power in the ’80’s, we now know better.\u00a0 The title […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,2889,14704,251,391,452,20333,826],"class_list":["post-34734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-demographics","tag-economica","tag-eia","tag-growth","tag-japan","tag-slowing-growth","tag-united-nations"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34734"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34734\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34735,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34734\/revisions\/34735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}