{"id":34422,"date":"2018-05-21T18:35:00","date_gmt":"2018-05-21T23:35:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34422"},"modified":"2018-05-21T18:35:00","modified_gmt":"2018-05-21T23:35:00","slug":"train-crash-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34422","title":{"rendered":"Train Crash Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Train Crash Preview<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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Today we will summarize something I\u2019ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12\u201318 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be \u201crationalized\u201d via some form of nonpayment. Whatever you want to call it, I think a worldwide debt default is likely in the next 10\u201312 years.<\/p>\n

I began this tale last week in Credit-Driven Train Crash, Part 1<\/a>. Today is Part 2 of a yet-undetermined number of installments. We may break away for a week or two if other events intrude, but I will keep coming back to this. It has many threads to explore. I\u2019m going to talk about my expectations given today\u2019s reality, without the prophetically inconvenient practice of predicting actual dates.<\/p>\n

Also, while I think this is the probable path, it\u2019s not locked in stone. Later in this series, I\u2019ll describe how we might avoid the rather difficult circumstances I foresee. While it is difficult now to imagine cooperation between the developed world\u2019s various factions, it has happened before. There are countries like Switzerland that have avoided war and economic catastrophe. We\u2019ll hope our better angels prevail while taking a somber look at the more probable.<\/p>\n

The experts who investigate transport disasters, crimes, and terror incidents usually create a chronology of events. Reading them in hindsight can be haunting\u2014you know what\u2019s coming and you want to scream, \u201cDon\u2019t do that!\u201d But of course, it\u2019s too late.<\/p>\n

We do something similar in economics when we look back at past recessions and market crashes. The causes seem obvious and we wonder why people didn\u2019t see it at the time. In fact, some people usually did<\/em> see it at the time, but excessive exuberance by the crowds and willful ignorance among the powerful drowned out their warnings. I\u2019ve been in that position myself and it is quite frustrating.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Train Crash Preview Today we will summarize something I\u2019ve been thinking about for a long time. Exactly how will we get from the credit crisis, which I think is coming in the next 12\u201318 months, to what I call the Great Reset, when the global debt will be \u201crationalized\u201d via some form of nonpayment. Whatever […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[124,3392,195,6847,364,13793,8226,661,662],"class_list":["post-34422","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-banks","tag-credit-crisis","tag-debt","tag-debt-default","tag-global-debt","tag-great-reset","tag-john-mauldin","tag-qe","tag-quantitative-easing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34422","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34422"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34422\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34423,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34422\/revisions\/34423"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34422"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34422"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34422"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}