{"id":34190,"date":"2018-05-12T06:34:05","date_gmt":"2018-05-12T11:34:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34190"},"modified":"2018-05-12T06:34:05","modified_gmt":"2018-05-12T11:34:05","slug":"what-goes-up-must-come-down-its-time-for-a-carbon-drawdown-budget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34190","title":{"rendered":"What goes up must come down: It&#8217;s time for a carbon drawdown budget"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"post-title entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.climatecodered.org\/2018\/05\/what-goes-up-must-come-down-its-time.html\">What goes up must come down: It&#8217;s time for a carbon drawdown budget<\/a><\/h3>\n<div id=\"post-body-6966507617340977160\" class=\"post-body entry-content\">\n<div class=\"separator\"><a href=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-gocNffZybes\/WvOUzziAGJI\/AAAAAAAAAFQ\/nkbuNIFBPrwcaMf3W-gvlwJdho_su6oywCLcBGAs\/s1600\/Db18bK5VAAAks94.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/2.bp.blogspot.com\/-gocNffZybes\/WvOUzziAGJI\/AAAAAAAAAFQ\/nkbuNIFBPrwcaMf3W-gvlwJdho_su6oywCLcBGAs\/s400\/Db18bK5VAAAks94.jpeg\" width=\"400\" height=\"224\" border=\"0\" data-original-height=\"410\" data-original-width=\"729\" \/><\/a><\/div>\n<p>There is no carbon budget left for 1.5\u00b0C climate warming target, which means that to achieve this outcome every tonne of emissions must be matched by a tonne of drawdown of atmospheric carbon from now on. For that reason, carbon budgets and emissions target should be complemented by a <b>carbon drawdown budget <\/b>and target.<\/p>\n<p>That&#8217;s the proposal made by Breakthrough, the Melbourne-based National Centre for Climate Restoration, to the Victorian climate change targets 2021-2030 expert panel, last week.<br \/>\n<a name=\"more\"><\/a><br \/>\nIn the submission, Breakthrough established that:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1.5\u00b0C of climate warming is not safe;<\/li>\n<li>There is no carbon budget remaining for 1.5\u00b0C, so <i><b>\u201cWhat goes up must come down\u201d<\/b><\/i>;<\/li>\n<li>\u201cOvershoot\u201d in emission reduction scenarios should be minimised in extent and duration to avoid tipping points that may be irreversible on human time-frames.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Here&#8217;s the story in more detail.<\/p>\n<p><b>1.\u00a0 1.5\u00b0C of climate warming is not safe<\/b><\/p>\n<p>The Paris Agreement has a policy goal of 1.5\u20132\u00b0C, but even 1.5\u00b0C is far from safe and is not a satisfactory target:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>In 2015, researchers looked at the damage to system elements \u2014 including water security, staple crops, land, coral reefs, vegetation and UNESCO World Heritage sites \u2014 as the temperature increases. They found all the damage from climate change to vulnerable categories like coral reefs, freshwater availability and plant life <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/ngeo\/journal\/v9\/n1\/full\/ngeo2607.html\">could happen before 2\u00b0C warming is reached<\/a>, and much of it before 1.5\u00b0C warming.<\/li>\n<li>\u00a0In 2013, Australian scientists contributed to an important research paper which found that preserving more than 10% of coral reefs worldwide would <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nature.com\/nclimate\/journal\/v3\/n2\/full\/nclimate1674.html\">require limiting warming to below 1.5\u00b0C<\/a>. Recent research found that the surge in ocean warming around the Great Barrier Reef in 2016-17, which led to the loss of half of the 2015 reef area, has <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/nclimate3296\">a 31% probability of occuring in any year<\/a> at just the current level of warming.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What goes up must come down: It&#8217;s time for a carbon drawdown budget There is no carbon budget left for 1.5\u00b0C climate warming target, which means that to achieve this outcome every tonne of emissions must be matched by a tonne of drawdown of atmospheric carbon from now on. For that reason, carbon budgets and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[113,141,7439,17945,369],"class_list":["post-34190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-carbon-emissions","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-code-red","tag-david-spratt","tag-global-warming"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34190","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34190"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34190\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34191,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34190\/revisions\/34191"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34190"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34190"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34190"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}