{"id":34140,"date":"2018-05-10T07:29:08","date_gmt":"2018-05-10T12:29:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34140"},"modified":"2018-05-10T07:29:08","modified_gmt":"2018-05-10T12:29:08","slug":"us-money-supply-growth-jumps-in-march-bank-credit-growth-stalls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34140","title":{"rendered":"US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"art-postmetadataheader\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"art-postcontent\">\n<h3 class=\"art-postheader\"><a title=\"Permanent Link to US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls\" href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/?p=52681\" rel=\"bookmark\">US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls<\/a><\/h3>\n<p><strong>A Movie We Have Seen Before \u2013 Repatriation Effect?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad monetary aggregate M2, because the component of TMS-2 responsible for the jump is not included in M2. Let us begin by looking at a chart of the TMS-2 growth rate and its 12-month moving average.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2018\/05\/1-TMS-2-y-y12m-ma.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-52682\" src=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2018\/05\/1-TMS-2-y-y12m-ma-1024x577.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2018\/05\/1-TMS-2-y-y12m-ma-1024x577.png 1024w, http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2018\/05\/1-TMS-2-y-y12m-ma-300x169.png 300w, http:\/\/www.acting-man.com\/blog\/media\/2018\/05\/1-TMS-2-y-y12m-ma-768x433.png 768w\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"361\" \/><\/a>The y\/y growth rate of TMS-2 increased from 2.68% in February to 4.85% in March. The 12-month moving average nevertheless continued to decline and stands now at 4.1%.<\/p>\n<p>The sole component of TMS-2 showing sizable growth in March was the US Treasury\u2019s general account with the Fed. This is included in the money supply because, well, it is money. The Treasury department will spend it, therefore this is not money that can be considered to reside \u201coutside\u201d of the economy (such as\u00a0 bank reserves).<\/p>\n<p>We were wondering what was behind the spurt in the amount held in the general account. While there was a decline in the growth rate of US demand deposits, the slowdown in momentum did not really offset the surge in funds held by the Treasury.<\/p>\n<p>This reminded us of a subject discussed by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) in the second half of 2016 in the wake of the change in money market fund regulations. This led to a repatriation of money MM funds previously lent out in the euro-dollar market to European issuers of commercial paper (mainly European banks).<\/p>\n<p>Readers may recall that there was a mysterious surge in the growth rate of the domestic US money supply (again, only visible in TMS 1 &amp; 2) into November 2016, despite a lack of QE and no discernible positive momentum in the rate of change of inflationary bank lending growth.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>US Money Supply Growth Jumps in March , Bank Credit Growth Stalls A Movie We Have Seen Before \u2013 Repatriation Effect? There was a sizable increase in the year-on-year growth rate of the true US money supply TMS-2 between February and March. Note that you would not notice this when looking at the official broad [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,175,13010,195,954,6170,661,662,827],"class_list":["post-34140","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-credit","tag-credit-growth","tag-debt","tag-money-supply","tag-pater-tenebrarum","tag-qe","tag-quantitative-easing","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34140","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34140"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34140\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34141,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34140\/revisions\/34141"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34140"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34140"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34140"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}