{"id":34059,"date":"2018-05-08T07:03:02","date_gmt":"2018-05-08T12:03:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34059"},"modified":"2018-05-08T07:03:02","modified_gmt":"2018-05-08T12:03:02","slug":"where-are-we-going","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=34059","title":{"rendered":"Where are We Going?"},"content":{"rendered":"<header class=\"post-image\">\n<div class=\"fimg-wrapper fimg-cl\">\n<div class=\"featured-image\">\n<div class=\"fimg-inner\">\n<div class=\"vm-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"vm-middle\">\n<h3 class=\"post-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2018-05-08\/where-are-we-going\/\">Where are We Going?<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"backstretch\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/05\/society.jpg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<section class=\"post-content\">\n<div class=\"et_social_inline et_social_mobile_on et_social_inline_top\">\n<div class=\"et_social_networks et_social_6col et_social_simple et_social_rectangle et_social_top et_social_no_animation et_social_outer_light\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"video-player\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/rrN0lbbSVOA?feature=oembed\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<p><em>Ed. note: Nate Hagens gave this talk on Earth Day on April 23, 2018 at The Land Institute, Salina, Kansas. What follows is an edited transcript of the talk.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Human Predicament<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Around 11,000 years ago, as the last ice age ended, our ancestors \u2013 in no fewer than 5 locations around the world \u2013 took advantage of the new conditions and tried an agricultural way of life.\u00a0 Fast forward through two momentous phase shifts in human history (agricultural and industrial revolutions), and here we are: approaching 8 billion, <\/em><em>seeking freedom, experiences, and material wealth all derived from physical surplus.\u00a0 As many are aware, the procuring of this \u2018surplus\u2019 is also impacting the larger sphere outside our homes, (we call it \u201cEarth\u201d) in increasingly deleterious ways.\u00a0 Yet, at an annual global growth rate of 3%, which most governments and institutions expect, <u>we would close to double the size of energy and materials it took us 11,000 years to amass, <strong>in the next 25 years<\/strong><\/u><\/em><strong><em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>Under current trends, a college student today would see over 2 such doublings in her lifetime. (yes,\u00a0 2X<\/em><em>\u00e8<\/em><em> 4X in size by the time they\u2019re 70).\u00a0 Is this possible? Is this desirable?\u00a0 What are the variables that will influence this trajectory? What would be the impacts if it happens? \u00a0And if it doesn\u2019t? There currently is no natural entity in our society charged with such questions.\u00a0 Or answers to the questions.\u00a0 But perhaps there should be.\u00a0 A systems synthesis which integrates aspects of energy, the environment, the economy and human behavior is a prerequisite to understanding what is unlikely, what is possible, what\u2019s at stake, and ultimately what to strive for and work towards. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>The Key <em>Continuums<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><em>My own conclusion is that The Next Doubling is now no longer possible.\u00a0 In the coming decade we are going to have to collectively deal with what I refer to as the Great Simplification. \u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Where are We Going? Ed. note: Nate Hagens gave this talk on Earth Day on April 23, 2018 at The Land Institute, Salina, Kansas. What follows is an edited transcript of the talk. The Human Predicament Around 11,000 years ago, as the last ice age ended, our ancestors \u2013 in no fewer than 5 locations [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[286,391,20068,6665],"class_list":["post-34059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-survival-2","tag-exponential-growth","tag-growth","tag-nate-hagans","tag-resilience-org"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34059","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=34059"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34059\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34060,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34059\/revisions\/34060"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=34059"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=34059"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=34059"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}