{"id":33743,"date":"2018-04-25T16:07:15","date_gmt":"2018-04-25T21:07:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=33743"},"modified":"2018-04-25T16:08:10","modified_gmt":"2018-04-25T21:08:10","slug":"markets-better-prepare-for-stagflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=33743","title":{"rendered":"Markets Better Prepare for Stagflation"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Markets Better Prepare for Stagflation<\/span><\/a><\/h3>\n
By all metrics, prices are heating up. But the same can’t be said for economic activity.<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Pray for Jerome Powell. \u00a0 \u00a0 Photographer: Andrew Harrer\/Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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Investors better wake up to the growing risk of stagflation. The coming weeks promise to deliver the verdict on how they should be positioned.<\/p>\n

By all metrics, inflation is heating up. But it\u2019s not clear the same can said for underlying economic activity.<\/p>\n

According to producers, input costs have risen for six of the past eight months. And it\u2019s not just big companies that are feeling pressure. One in four small businesses say they plan to raise prices, a 10-year high, according to the National Federation of Independent Business. Inflation\u2019s persistence will finally begin to trickle through to consumers.<\/p>\n

David Rosenberg, chief economist at the wealth management company Gluskin Sheff, recently quipped that investors \u201cbetter say a prayer for Jay Powell,\u201d the Federal Reserve chair. The deniers will dismiss the suggestion. But Rosenberg is serious, citing the core consumer price index\u2019s March leap to 2.1 percent, a level that breaches the Fed\u2019s 2 percent inflation target.<\/p>\n

“There is going to be a price to be paid for last year\u2019s string of wireless-induced 0.1 percent prints which are falling out of the year-over-year math,\u201d Rosenberg explained, referring to the collapse in wireless services that skewed inflation lower in 2017. \u201cI see 50\/50 odds of a 3 percent core inflation by year end.\u201d<\/div>\n

That would certainly grab the Fed\u2019s attention and — critically for investors\u00a0— keep the central bank in a tightening mode through the end of the year and into 2019. Notably, no single Federal Open Market Committee member voiced concern about the risk of inflation that is too low, the first time this has occurred since the Fed began making public the views of participants in 2011.<\/p>\n

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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Markets Better Prepare for Stagflation By all metrics, prices are heating up. But the same can’t be said for economic activity. Pray for Jerome Powell. \u00a0 \u00a0 Photographer: Andrew Harrer\/Bloomberg Investors better wake up to the growing risk of stagflation. The coming weeks promise to deliver the verdict on how they should be positioned. By […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[83,13492,303,426,16888,3303,2443,3650],"class_list":["post-33743","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bloomberg","tag-danielle-dimartino-booth","tag-fed","tag-inflation","tag-jerome-powell","tag-stagflation","tag-stock-markets","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33743","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33743"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33743\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33745,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33743\/revisions\/33745"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33743"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33743"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33743"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}