{"id":33232,"date":"2018-04-08T17:38:17","date_gmt":"2018-04-08T22:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=33232"},"modified":"2018-04-08T17:38:17","modified_gmt":"2018-04-08T22:38:17","slug":"trade-wars-just-beginning-the-war-is-a-fight-over-an-indefinitely-shrinking-pie","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=33232","title":{"rendered":"Trade Wars Just Beginning…The War Is a Fight Over an Indefinitely Shrinking Pie"},"content":{"rendered":"

Trade Wars Just Beginning…The War Is a Fight Over an Indefinitely Shrinking Pie<\/a><\/h3>\n
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From a growth perspective, it doesn’t matter if the world is 7.5 million or 7.5 billion persons…it only matters how many more<\/u><\/em> there are from one year to the next.\u00a0 Economic growth (or the ability to consume more…not produce more)\u00a0is about the annual\u00a0growth\u00a0of the population among those with the income, savings, and access to credit (or governmental social pass-through programs).\u00a0 That’s what this trade war is all about and why it’s just beginning.\u00a0 First it was a fight for decelerating growth…but now it’s about a shrinking pool of consumers.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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\nNowhere is this decline in potential\u00a0consumers\u00a0more acute than East Asia (China, Japan, N\/S Korea, Taiwan, plus some minor others).\u00a0 I have previously detailed China’s situation HERE<\/a>\u00a0but the chart below shows the broader East Asia total\u00a0under 60 year old population (blue line) and annual change in red columns.\u00a0 Peak growth in the under 60yr\/old population (consumer base)\u00a0took place way back in 1969, annually adding 22 million\u00a0potential consumers.\u00a0\u00a0As recently\u00a0as 1988, an echo peak added 19 million annually\u00a0but the deceleration of growth since ’88 has been inexorable.\u00a0 Then in 2009, decelerating growth turned to decline and the decline will continue indefinitely.\u00a0 What began as a gentle decline is about to turn into progressively larger tumult.\u00a0 By 2030, the under 60yr\/old population will be 9% smaller than present.\u00a0 East Asia’s domestic\u00a0consumer\u00a0driven market\u00a0is collapsing in real time\u00a0and it’s reliance on exports greater than ever.
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\nThe chart below shows the total 0-65 year old global population (minus Africa and India…blue line) and the annual change in that population in the red columns.\u00a0 Why excluding Africa\/India?\u00a0 Because they represent nearly all global population growth, consume less than 10% of\u00a0the\u00a0global exports, and haven’t the income, savings, or access to credit to consume relative to the rest of the world.\u00a0 Growth (x-Africa\/India)\u00a0peaked in 1988, annually adding 52 million prime consumers.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trade Wars Just Beginning…The War Is a Fight Over an Indefinitely Shrinking Pie From a growth perspective, it doesn’t matter if the world is 7.5 million or 7.5 billion persons…it only matters how many more there are from one year to the next.\u00a0 Economic growth (or the ability to consume more…not produce more)\u00a0is about the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,5],"tags":[130,162,240,18287,391,421,1371,702,19291,3222,827],"class_list":["post-33232","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-geopolitics","tag-china","tag-consumption","tag-economic-growth","tag-economica-blog","tag-growth","tag-income","tag-population","tag-savings","tag-trade-tariffs","tag-trade-war","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33232","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33232"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33232\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33233,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33232\/revisions\/33233"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33232"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33232"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33232"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}