{"id":33170,"date":"2018-04-06T06:15:44","date_gmt":"2018-04-06T11:15:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=33170"},"modified":"2018-04-06T06:15:44","modified_gmt":"2018-04-06T11:15:44","slug":"1-5c-of-warming-is-closer-than-we-imagine-just-a-decade-away","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=33170","title":{"rendered":"1.5\u00b0C of warming is closer than we imagine, just a decade away"},"content":{"rendered":"

1.5\u00b0C of warming is closer than we imagine, just a decade away<\/a><\/h3>\n

Global warming of 1.5\u00b0C is imminent, likely in just a decade from now. That\u2019s the stunning conclusion to be drawn from a number of recent studies, surveyed below.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n
\n\n\n\n\n
<\/a><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Paris Commitments now put the
\nworld on a path of 3.4\u00b0C of
\nwarming by 2100
\n(Climate Action Tracker)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

So how does hitting warming of 1.5\u00b0C a decade from now square with the 2015 Paris Agreement\u2019s goal of \u201cholding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C\u201d? In two words, it doesn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

The Paris text was a political fix in which grand words masked inadequate deeds. The voluntary national emission reduction commitments since Paris now put the world on a path of 3.4\u00b0C of warming by 2100<\/a> (as illustrated), and more than 5\u00b0C<\/a> if high-end risks including carbon-cycle feedbacks are taken into account.<\/p>\n

The Paris outcome is an emissions path continuing to rise for another fifteen years, even though it is clear that \u201cif the 1.5\u00b0C limit should not be breached in any given year, the budget (is) already overspent today<\/a>\u201d. Two years ago, Prof. Michael E. Mann noted<\/a>: \u201cAnd what about 1.5\u00b0C stabilisation? We\u2019re already overdrawn.\u201d<\/p>\n

<\/a>In fact, the emission scenarios associated with the Paris goal show that warming will \u201covershoot\u201d the 1.5\u00b0C target<\/a> by up to half a degree, before cooling back to it by the end of this century. Those scenarios rely unduly<\/a> on unproven Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) technology in the second half of the century, because the Paris Agreement does not encompass the steep emissions reductions that are required right now.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1.5\u00b0C of warming is closer than we imagine, just a decade away Global warming of 1.5\u00b0C is imminent, likely in just a decade from now. That\u2019s the stunning conclusion to be drawn from a number of recent studies, surveyed below. Paris Commitments now put the world on a path of 3.4\u00b0C of warming by 2100 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,7],"tags":[140,141,7439,17945,13036,1115,386,14354],"class_list":["post-33170","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","category-survival-2","tag-climate","tag-climate-change","tag-climate-code-red","tag-david-spratt","tag-global-temperature","tag-greenhouse-gas-emissions","tag-greenhouse-gases","tag-paris-agreement"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33170","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=33170"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33170\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":33171,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/33170\/revisions\/33171"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=33170"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=33170"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=33170"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}