{"id":32187,"date":"2018-03-10T18:13:59","date_gmt":"2018-03-10T23:13:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=32187"},"modified":"2018-03-10T18:13:59","modified_gmt":"2018-03-10T23:13:59","slug":"the-everything-bubble-waiting-for-the-pin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=32187","title":{"rendered":"The Everything Bubble&#8212;Waiting For The Pin"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"article-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/davidstockmanscontracorner.com\/the-everything-bubble-waiting-for-the-pin\/\">The Everything Bubble&#8212;Waiting For The Pin<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"article-content\">\n<p>Yesterday we noted that financial markets have become\u00a0completely uncoupled from reality and that the recent feeble bounces\u00a0between the\u00a020-day and 50-day chart points were essentially the rigor mortis of a dead bull. As it happened, we were able to share those sentiments with what remains of CNBC&#8217;s audience of carbon-based units:<\/p>\n<p><center><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/6hX8js5JJl0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/center>As we also noted as per\u00a0the chart point mavens, the 20-day average down at 2703 (red line)\u00a0on the\u00a0S&amp;P 500 was\u00a0supposed to represent &#8220;support&#8221; while the\u00a0 50-day average (blue line)\u00a0purportedly\u00a0functioned as &#8220;resistance&#8221;.Well, upon the official announcement of the Donald&#8217;s\u00a0lunatic trade war, there she\u00a0sat at yesterday&#8217;s\u00a0close&#8212;less than one point under the\u00a050-day moving average at 2739.8 (blue line).<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>But\u00a0rather than &#8220;resistance&#8221;, which the raging robo-machines ripped through today like a hot knife through butter, we&#8217;d say the blue line represents the\u00a0last frontier of sanity<\/strong><\/em>. That&#8217;s because a stock market trading at <em><strong>25X<\/strong> <\/em>earnings under\u00a0today&#8217;s baleful\u00a0circumstances\u00a0is nothing less\u00a0than\u00a0a brobdingnagian\u00a0bubble (i.e. a huuuge one)\u00a0frantically searching for\u00a0the proverbial\u00a0pin.<\/p>\n<p>We essay the razor sharp aspects of the pin below, but suffice it to say here that the cyclical\u00a0calendar has just plain run out of time. It is way, way too late in the cycle at <em><strong>105 months<\/strong> <\/em>of age\u00a0to be &#8220;pricing-in&#8221; anything except the end of the party. And this bubblicious party has embodied the most spectacular central-bank fueled mania yet&#8212;meaning that the morning after is going to bring a truly hellacious hangover.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/ycharts.com\/indices\/%5ESPX\/technical_chart\/#\/?partner=&amp;startDate=01\/15\/2018&amp;style=candlestick&amp;endDate=&amp;include_tech_info=True&amp;legendOnChart=true&amp;dataObject=id:^SPX,,&amp;useHttps=false&amp;technicals=type:volume,,params:,,include:true,,,type:sma,,params:50,,include:true,,,type:sma,,params:200,,include:true,,,type:sma,,params:20,,include:true&amp;zoom=custom&amp;periods=market_daily&amp;securitylistName=&amp;adjusted=False&amp;title=&amp;note=&amp;displayTicker=False&amp;securityGroup=\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.ycharts.com\/charts\/3b248e42aadb0ec86221cb1a462cd066.png\" alt=\"^SPX Chart\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Among the many sharp edges of the pin are these:<\/p>\n<p>1) the virtual certainly of a recession within the next two years and a\u00a0typical 30%-50% drop in earnings;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Everything Bubble&#8212;Waiting For The Pin Yesterday we noted that financial markets have become\u00a0completely uncoupled from reality and that the recent feeble bounces\u00a0between the\u00a020-day and 50-day chart points were essentially the rigor mortis of a dead bull. As it happened, we were able to share those sentiments with what remains of CNBC&#8217;s audience of carbon-based [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[964,5979,2120,17853,1849,1264],"class_list":["post-32187","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-cnbc","tag-contracorner","tag-david-stockman","tag-everything-bubble","tag-financial-markets","tag-recession"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32187","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32187"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32187\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32188,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32187\/revisions\/32188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32187"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32187"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32187"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}