{"id":32185,"date":"2018-03-10T18:11:30","date_gmt":"2018-03-10T23:11:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=32185"},"modified":"2018-03-10T18:11:30","modified_gmt":"2018-03-10T23:11:30","slug":"japanese-bubble-bursting-playbook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=32185","title":{"rendered":"Japanese Bubble Bursting Playbook"},"content":{"rendered":"

JAPANESE BUBBLE BURSTING PLAYBOOK<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Every now and then I stumble across a new source of information that I can\u2019t wait to share with my readers. Today is one of those days. If you have even the tiniest shred of interest in commodities, then head over to the Goerhring & Rozencwajg<\/a> website immediately. It\u2019s just terrific stuff.<\/p>\n

I must admit to being partial to their bullish commodity story, but in a recent RealVision TV<\/a><\/strong>interview, Leigh Goehring solved a problem that I have wrestled with for some time.<\/p>\n

What if China rolls over?<\/strong><\/p>\n

We all know the China bear story. For the past couple of years, famed China skeptics like Jim Chanos (FT Article – \u201cChina:market bulls beat the short sellers – for now\u201d)<\/a> and Kyle Bass (Reuters Article – \u201cChina credit bubble \u2018metastasizing\u2019\u201d)<\/a> have been warning about a China credit bubble implosion. Although I am hopeful that China will avoid the apocalyptic scenario they paint, there is a little part of me that worries when I am betting against Chanos.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Chanos might have lost the Tom Selleck mustache (and in the process, given away a fair amount of his hipster cred), but I hate being on the other side of his trade. I am pretty sure God has an account at Kynikos Accociates. They are simply that good.<\/p>\n

So I have always struggled with being long commodities in the face of a potential China credit implosion. After all, China is the world\u2019s largest importer and user of commodities, a slowdown would be catastrophic for commodities, right?<\/p>\n

Not so fast. As Leigh Goehring so aptly notes, a great analogy for a potential China credit crisis would be the Japanese credit collapse of 1990.<\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

There can be no denying that in the wake of the Japanese bubble bursting, their economy suffered a credit contraction that rivals the world\u2019s greatest slowdowns. Given this horrible setback, it would be logical to conclude that Japan\u2019s commodity usage suffered a similar contraction.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

JAPANESE BUBBLE BURSTING PLAYBOOK Every now and then I stumble across a new source of information that I can\u2019t wait to share with my readers. Today is one of those days. If you have even the tiniest shred of interest in commodities, then head over to the Goerhring & Rozencwajg website immediately. It\u2019s just terrific […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1806,130,19236,452,19237,8695,19145],"class_list":["post-32185","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-bubble","tag-china","tag-china-credit-bubble","tag-japan","tag-jim-chanos","tag-kyle-bass","tag-macrotourist"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32185"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32185\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32186,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32185\/revisions\/32186"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}