{"id":32006,"date":"2018-03-07T06:56:06","date_gmt":"2018-03-07T11:56:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=32006"},"modified":"2018-03-07T06:56:06","modified_gmt":"2018-03-07T11:56:06","slug":"shale-pioneer-issues-warning-to-us-drillers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=32006","title":{"rendered":"Shale Pioneer Issues Warning To US Drillers"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/Shale-Pioneer-Issues-Warning-To-US-Drillers.html\">Shale Pioneer Issues Warning To US Drillers<\/a><\/h3>\n<picture><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"singleArticle__articleImage\" title=\"Mark Papa EOG\" src=\"https:\/\/d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net\/article\/718x300\/f080da9234a0854631ab23f302df6127.jpg\" alt=\"Mark Papa EOG\" \/><\/picture>\n<div id=\"article-content\" class=\"wysiwyg clear\">\n<p>U.S. shale has effectively upended the oil industry, with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-crude-production-expected-to-surpass-saudi-arabia-in-2018-1516352405\">predictions<\/a> that total U.S. oil production will surpass Saudi Arabia\u2019s output this year, in turn rivalling Russia\u2019s to become the preeminent global producer. From its position of being dependent on, and subordinate to OPEC, the U.S. has seemingly become the big bad wolf. Through a catalogue of tactical errors and misplaced belief in its own muscle, the mighty brick edifice of OPEC has begun to look more like a bundle of sticks.<\/p>\n<p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/weo2017\/\">forecasts<\/a> that the U.S. will become a net energy exporter by the late 2020s, but how accurate is that forecast, and to what extent is it mere hyperbole? In October last year there were already <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foxbusiness.com\/features\/u-s-shale-juggernaut-shows-signs-of-fatigue\">caveats<\/a> about the nature of U.S. shale, with some warning that aggressive expansion was leading to rapid initial growth that would ultimately peak too soon. Mark Papa, former head of EOG Resources (NYSE: EOG) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.naturalgasintel.com\/articles\/112543-papa-calls-us-shale-oil-output-growth-estimates-overly-optimistic\">raised the question<\/a> of flatlining output in the face of the doubling of the oil rig count, \u201c(h)ow can a rig count be double and yet production be stagnant?&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Figures have also been influenced by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.consultancy-me.com\/news\/202\/innovation-is-changing-the-face-of-the-oil-and-gas-industry\">rapid pace<\/a> of technological development, a pace which has itself plateaued. Robert Clarke, WoodMac research director for Lower 48 upstream, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ogj.com\/articles\/print\/volume-115\/issue-9c\/general-interest\/woodmac-permian-basin-production-growth-could-slow-early-next-decade.html\">said<\/a> that \u201c(i)f future wells &#8230; are not offset by continued technology evolution, the Permian may peak in 2021\u201d. IEA forecasts then, may be based on rapid growth and technological development that simply isn\u2019t sustainable.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shale Pioneer Issues Warning To US Drillers U.S. shale has effectively upended the oil industry, with predictions that total U.S. oil production will surpass Saudi Arabia\u2019s output this year, in turn rivalling Russia\u2019s to become the preeminent global producer. From its position of being dependent on, and subordinate to OPEC, the U.S. has seemingly become [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[19121,416,433,5332,600,694,723,827,1358],"class_list":["post-32006","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-gary-norman","tag-iea","tag-international-energy-agency","tag-oilprice-com","tag-opec","tag-russia","tag-shale-oil","tag-united-states","tag-us-shale"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32006","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32006"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32006\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32007,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32006\/revisions\/32007"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32006"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32006"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32006"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}