{"id":31779,"date":"2018-03-01T14:55:38","date_gmt":"2018-03-01T19:55:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=31779"},"modified":"2018-03-01T14:55:38","modified_gmt":"2018-03-01T19:55:38","slug":"inflation-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=31779","title":{"rendered":"Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<div class=\"story-header-area\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"story-header\">\n<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/www.themaven.net\/mishtalk\/economics\/inflation-is-in-the-rear-view-mirror-VbBailr6KUmdA_mD2UqFdg\">Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"photo\">\n<div class=\"renderable configurableRenderable__3Z77r\">\n<figure class=\"image\">\n<div class=\"picture__28iqY picture loaded\">\n<div class=\"observable\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"\" title=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2F7xWme5tZM0q8SGpUP6_2Kw\" srcset=\"https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2F7xWme5tZM0q8SGpUP6_2Kw?w=662&amp;q=75&amp;h=374.4646464646465&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop 1x, https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2F7xWme5tZM0q8SGpUP6_2Kw?w=993&amp;q=75&amp;h=562&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop 1.5x, https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2F7xWme5tZM0q8SGpUP6_2Kw?w=1324&amp;q=75&amp;h=749&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop 2x, https:\/\/imageproxy.themaven.net\/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fmaven-user-photos%2Fmishtalk%2Feconomics%2FzmfATcSa4EegwR7v_znq6Q%2F7xWme5tZM0q8SGpUP6_2Kw?w=1986&amp;q=75&amp;h=1123&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop 3x \" alt=\"\" width=\"662\" height=\"374.4646464646465\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"post-summary\">\n<div class=\"publish-info\">\n<div class=\"authorCard authorCard__SfNCX\">\n<div class=\"picture__28iqY false picture loaded\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"toolsMenu__1zgs3 toolsMenu\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<section class=\"deck\">43 percent of credit card holders carry a balance. Delinquencies are rising. It&#8217;s a deflationary debt trap.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/header>\n<article class=\"story-body clearfix\">\n<div class=\"body\">\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Revolving Credit Hits New Record High<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>In December, revolving debt has topped the previous high-water mark of $1.021 trillion set in April of 2008. Debt as of December 2017 (the latest available) is $1.028 trillion.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Relationship Killer<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>In addition to student loans, credit card debt is another factor holding down home ownership and family formation. Studies show <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2018\/02\/26\/credit-card-debt-could-damage-romantic-relationships.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Credit Card Debt is a Relationship Killer<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Of all household debts, Americans find credit card debt the most unacceptable in a partner, but credit card balances are creeping higher.<\/li>\n<li>About 43 percent off all card holders carry a balance each month according to the American Bankers Association.<\/li>\n<li>More than 3 in 4 Americans consider too much card debt a relationship deal breaker, according to personal finance site Finder.com.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Overdue Debt Hits 7-Year High<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>The Financial Times reports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/7aad6ec2-1c00-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Overdue US Credit Card Debt Hits 7-Year High<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Distressed debt, defined as debt that&#8217;s at least three month&#8217;s delinquent, totals $11.9 billion. That&#8217;s an 11.5% fourth-quarter surge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>\u200bThe Financial Times also notes &#8220;More Americans are also falling behind on their mortgages, for which problematic debt levels rose 5.2 percent over the same period to $56.7 billion.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Deflationary Debt Trap Setup<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>These numbers are huge deflationary. When credit expands there is inflation. When credit contracts (think defaults, bankruptcies, mortgage walk-away events), debt deflation occurs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Here&#8217;s my definition of inflation: An increase in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p>Deflation is the opposite: A decrease in money supply and credit, with credit marked to market.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<p><strong>Looking Ahead<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<div>\n<div>\n<ul>\n<li>Credit card delinquencies are priced as if they will be paid back. They won&#8217;t.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"markdown\">\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inflation is in the Rear-View Mirror 43 percent of credit card holders carry a balance. Delinquencies are rising. It&#8217;s a deflationary debt trap. Revolving Credit Hits New Record High In December, revolving debt has topped the previous high-water mark of $1.021 trillion set in April of 2008. Debt as of December 2017 (the latest available) [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[10067,195,202,426,14648,13390,1805,827],"class_list":["post-31779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-credit-card-debt","tag-debt","tag-deflation","tag-inflation","tag-michael-shedlock","tag-mishtalk","tag-student-loans","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31779"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31780,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31779\/revisions\/31780"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}