{"id":31239,"date":"2018-02-19T11:51:37","date_gmt":"2018-02-19T16:51:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=31239"},"modified":"2018-02-19T11:51:37","modified_gmt":"2018-02-19T16:51:37","slug":"the-writing-on-the-wall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=31239","title":{"rendered":"The Writing on the Wall"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Writing on the Wall<\/a><\/h3>\n
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\"\"<\/a>Many times people\u2019s eyes glaze over when it comes to macro analysis and I get it. Macro analysis is by definition: Macro. It\u2019s like watching a glacier melt and it only becomes of concern when the glacier structure collapses and you just happen to be in front of it. And then everybody says: Nobody could\u2019ve seen it coming.<\/p>\n

Yet following the macro pieces is so incredibly important and I continuously try to dedicate some time to dissect the big data pieces and the data keeps screaming the same message: The Writing is on the Wall.<\/p>\n

For reference I keep track of these observations in NT blog<\/strong><\/a> and the Macro Corner<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a few that stuck out in the past few days.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs sees red ink everywhere, warns US spending could push up rates and debt levels<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cGoldman Sachs sees a tidal wave of red ink<\/strong> \u2014 and it may drag the U.S. economy into its undertow.<\/em><\/p>\n

Federal deficit spending is headed toward \u201cuncharted territory,\u201d the firm said on Sunday, suggesting that the Trump administration and Congressional Republicans may not be able to count on the economic boost of tax reform for very longer.\u00a0Goldman Sachs warned that the economic impetus from tax reform may have diminishing returns after this year. \u201cThe fiscal expansion should boost growth by around 0.7pp in 2018 and 0.6pp in 2019, but will likely come to an end after that\u201d\u2014listing a litany of reasons why spending and debt would conspire to undermine the world\u2019s largest economy.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

Goldman\u2019s analysts wrote that the \u201cgrowth effect comes from the change in the deficit, not the level, and further expansion would put the U.S. onto an even less sustainable long-term trend. Second, some of the recent deficit expansion relates to changes unlikely to be repeated, such as the temporarily large effect of certain tax provisions.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Writing on the Wall Many times people\u2019s eyes glaze over when it comes to macro analysis and I get it. Macro analysis is by definition: Macro. It\u2019s like watching a glacier melt and it only becomes of concern when the glacier structure collapses and you just happen to be in front of it. And […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[195,376,18699,7542,18572,18700],"class_list":["post-31239","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-debt","tag-goldman-sachs","tag-macro-analysis","tag-northman-trader","tag-us-deficit","tag-us-spending"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31239","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31239"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31239\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31240,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31239\/revisions\/31240"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31239"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31239"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31239"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}