{"id":31179,"date":"2018-02-18T14:52:07","date_gmt":"2018-02-18T19:52:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=31179"},"modified":"2018-02-18T14:52:07","modified_gmt":"2018-02-18T19:52:07","slug":"swan-song-of-the-central-bankers-part-5-the-flat-line-does-not-spell-recovery","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=31179","title":{"rendered":"Swan Song Of The Central Bankers, Part 5: The Flat Line Does Not Spell Recovery"},"content":{"rendered":"

Swan Song Of The Central Bankers, Part 5: The Flat Line Does Not Spell Recovery<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n

The punk January industrial production (IP)\u00a0report brought another reminder that the Fed has stimulated nothing at all on the output\/employment prong of its dual mandate.<\/p>\n

Indeed, as they\u00a0celebrate a\u00a0purported “mission\u00a0accomplished” full employment\u00a0recovery and\u00a0confidently\u00a0prepare to plow forward with an epochal pivot to QT (quantitative\u00a0tightening),\u00a0our Keynesian central bankers have\u00a0remained absolutely mum on this stunning fact:\u00a0To wit, there\u00a0has been no recovery at all<\/strong> in US\u00a0industrial production, and that’s as in nichts, nada and nugatory.<\/p>\n

In fact,\u00a0January 2018 output in the manufacturing sector was still 2.2% below<\/strong> <\/em>its December 2007 level, and total industrial production has barely crept forward at a 0.19%<\/strong><\/em> annual rate.\u00a0And if you don’t think that is close enough to zero for government work, just recall what a real historical recovery looks like on the IP front.<\/p>\n

During the December 2000 to December 2007 cycle, for example, total IP grew at 1.4%<\/strong> <\/em>per annum and manufacturing output rose by\u00a01.9%<\/strong><\/em> per annum on a peak-to-peak basis. Prior to that during\u00a0the 1990-2000 cycle, the figures were 4.0%<\/strong> and 4.6%<\/strong> <\/em>per annum, respectively.<\/p>\n

And if you want to dial way back in time to\u00a0the Reagan-Bush cycle from July 1981 to July 1990,\u00a0the peak-to-peak\u00a0growth trend for\u00a0total industrial production\u00a0was 2.3%<\/strong><\/em> per annum and\u00a02.8% <\/strong>for manufacturing output. And, by your way, that cycle also included a deep recession in 1982 that was only slightly less severe than the 2008-2009 downturn.<\/p>\n

In short, when you don’t get anywhere on industrial production over the course of\u00a010 full years—-the Great Recession notwithstanding—you are not succeeding. And while you are bragging, you at least ought to attempt to explain or rationalize what is otherwise a screaming aberration in the modern\u00a0history of business cycles.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Swan Song Of The Central Bankers, Part 5: The Flat Line Does Not Spell Recovery The punk January industrial production (IP)\u00a0report brought another reminder that the Fed has stimulated nothing at all on the output\/employment prong of its dual mandate. Indeed, as they\u00a0celebrate a\u00a0purported “mission\u00a0accomplished” full employment\u00a0recovery and\u00a0confidently\u00a0prepare to plow forward with an epochal pivot […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[3832,5979,2120,384,424,8701,8625,670],"class_list":["post-31179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-bankers","tag-contracorner","tag-david-stockman","tag-great-recession","tag-industrial-production","tag-qt","tag-quantitative-tightening","tag-recovery"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=31179"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":31180,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/31179\/revisions\/31180"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=31179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=31179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=31179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}