{"id":30962,"date":"2018-02-13T17:16:32","date_gmt":"2018-02-13T22:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=30962"},"modified":"2018-02-13T17:16:32","modified_gmt":"2018-02-13T22:16:32","slug":"its-different-this-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=30962","title":{"rendered":"Its Different This Time"},"content":{"rendered":"

IT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME<\/strong><\/a><\/h3>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

Remember all those bullish studies market pundits were passing around in early January? Do you recall the parroting about \u201chow goes January, the rest of the year follows?\u201d It\u2019s easy to forget, but many market strategists were falling all over themselves bullish just a couple of weeks ago (see Parabolic Moves Don\u2019t End by Going Sideways<\/a><\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Now, some 300 handles lower in the S&P 500, many of these same forecasters are talking about the extensive technical damage and advocating caution.<\/p>\n

I am not here to pick on any pundits – I subscribe to the Yogi Berra school of forecasting – it\u2019s tough to make predictions, especially about the future. But I take issue with one major aspect of the current investing environment. Most market players are using the playbook from the last few decades in their forecasts. They are mistakenly thinking the rules of the game haven\u2019t changed.<\/p>\n

Their predictions from last month are still ringing in my ears; low volatility January rises have been followed with stock market strength, so there\u2019s no way anyone could predict that stocks would swoon 10% in a week and a half for no real reason at all. Yet that\u2019s exactly what they did.<\/p>\n

What\u2019s different today?<\/h3>\n

I find myself hesitant to type out these next few lines. As I struggle to find the words to communicate my thoughts, I worry they will be misconstrued. Yet I don\u2019t know how else to say it – except to blurt it out. So at the risk of being labeled a fool, here it goes – it\u2019s different this time<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Yup. I said it. I committed the cardinal sin of investing. I uttered the most expensive four words in the history of markets.<\/p>\n

Before you call me a Luddite and hit delete on your email or click the home button on your browser, hear me out.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

IT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME Remember all those bullish studies market pundits were passing around in early January? Do you recall the parroting about \u201chow goes January, the rest of the year follows?\u201d It\u2019s easy to forget, but many market strategists were falling all over themselves bullish just a couple of weeks ago (see Parabolic Moves […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[124,16229,753,1141,2773],"class_list":["post-30962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-central-banks","tag-macro-tourist","tag-stocks","tag-vix","tag-volatility"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30962"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30962\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30963,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30962\/revisions\/30963"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}