{"id":29098,"date":"2017-12-22T07:59:08","date_gmt":"2017-12-22T12:59:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=29098"},"modified":"2017-12-22T07:59:08","modified_gmt":"2017-12-22T12:59:08","slug":"will-canadas-latest-boom-in-tar-sands-oil-mean-another-boom-for-oil-by-rail","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=29098","title":{"rendered":"Will Canada\u2019s Latest Boom in Tar Sands Oil Mean Another Boom for Oil-by-Rail?"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 id=\"page-title\" class=\"page__title title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/2017\/12\/21\/canadian-tar-sands-oil-production-increase-rail\">Will Canada\u2019s Latest Boom in Tar Sands Oil Mean Another Boom for Oil-by-Rail?<\/a><\/h3>\n<article class=\"node-12472 node node-blog node-promoted view-mode-full clearfix\">\n<div class=\"field field-name-field-bimage field-type-image field-label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item even\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/sites\/beta.desmogblog.com\/files\/styles\/full_width_blog_image\/public\/blogimages\/Canadian%20oil%20by%20rail%20accident%20-%20Gogama.png?itok=831wRRGI\" alt=\"Oil by rail accident, with tank cars burning, near Gogama, Canada in 2015\" width=\"826\" height=\"464\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"new-horizontal-social-bar clearfix\">\n<div class=\"new-horizontal-share-wrapper new-horizontal-email-wrapper clearfix last\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item even\">\n<p>Nothing seems\u00a0able to derail the rise\u00a0in Canadian tar sands oil production. Low <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-08-24\/can-oil-sands-pay-off-at-just-50-a-barrel\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">prices,<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/calgaryherald.com\/business\/energy\/transcanada-cancels-energy-east-pipeline-project\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">canceled pipelines,<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2015\/jan\/07\/much-worlds-fossil-fuel-reserve-must-stay-buried-prevent-climate-change-study-says\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">climate realities<\/a>, a major oil company announcing it will no <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-statoil-oil\/statoil-plants-flag-in-big-oils-race-for-cleaner-crude-idUSKBN1DL1H0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">longer develop heavy oils<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nationalobserver.com\/2017\/10\/13\/news\/frances-biggest-bank-shuns-oilsands\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">divestment,\u00a0<\/a>and now even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2017\/dec\/12\/insurance-giant-axa-dumps-investments-tar-sands-pipelines\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">refusals to insure tar sands pipelines <\/a>have all certainly slowed production, but it is still poised for significant growth over the next several\u00a0years.<\/p>\n<p>In March an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/calgary\/alberta-oilsands-production-bright-outlook-1.4031788\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analyst for <span class=\"caps\">GMP<\/span> FirstEnergy commented<\/a>,\u00a0\u201cIt&#8217;s hard to imagine a scenario where oilsands production would go\u00a0down.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But with pipelines to <span class=\"caps\">U.S.<\/span> refineries and ports running at or near capacity from Canada, it&#8217;s hard to imagine all that heavy Canadian oil going anywhere without the help of the rail\u00a0industry.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe oilsands are witnessing unprecedented growth that we now peg at roughly 250,000 barrels per day in 2017 and 315,000 bpd in 2018, before downshifting to roughly 180,000 bpd in 2019,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ctvnews.ca\/business\/oilsands-price-discounts-expected-to-rise-as-output-exceeds-export-pipeline-room-1.3723266\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">says a new report<\/a> from analyst Greg Pardy of <span class=\"caps\">RBC<\/span>Dominion\u00a0Securities.<\/p>\n<p>However, much like shale oil in the U.S., increased production doesn\u2019t necessarily mean increased profits. The Wall Street Journal recently reported that since 2007 investors have spent approximately<a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4130505-shale-oils-big-problem-profits\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> a quarter trillion dollars<\/a> more on shale production than those investments have\u00a0generated.<\/p>\n<p>Clearly the oil industry will keep pumping as much oil as they can even while losing large sums of money. And just like in the U.S., Canadian oil producers are facing significant economic challenges, which have caused some companies to <a href=\"https:\/\/environmentaldefence.ca\/2017\/03\/14\/seven-oil-multinationals-pulling-canadas-tar-sands\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">get out of the business<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As a result of these challenges, forecasts for future tar sands production have fallen significantly. In 2013 the forecast for 2030 production was <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/business\/canada-s-oil-output-to-more-than-double-by-2030-1.1369584\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">6.7 million barrels per day<\/a>. That has been revised down to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/business\/canada-s-oil-output-to-more-than-double-by-2030-1.1369584\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">5.1 million barrels per day<\/a>. While that is a sizable drop in expected future production, the industry will still be growing in the near future, and most of that oil will be exported to\u00a0America.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Will Canada\u2019s Latest Boom in Tar Sands Oil Mean Another Boom for Oil-by-Rail? Nothing seems\u00a0able to derail the rise\u00a0in Canadian tar sands oil production. Low prices, canceled pipelines, climate realities, a major oil company announcing it will no longer develop heavy oils, divestment,\u00a0and now even refusals to insure tar sands pipelines have all certainly slowed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[103,5317,11782,2466,723,781,827],"class_list":["post-29098","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-canada","tag-desmog-blog","tag-justin-mikulka","tag-oil-by-rail","tag-shale-oil","tag-tar-sands","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29098","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29098"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29098\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29099,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29098\/revisions\/29099"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29098"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29098"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29098"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}