{"id":29055,"date":"2017-12-21T07:37:03","date_gmt":"2017-12-21T12:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=29055"},"modified":"2017-12-21T07:37:03","modified_gmt":"2017-12-21T12:37:03","slug":"oil-price-outlook-december-2017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=29055","title":{"rendered":"Oil Price Outlook December 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/oil-price-outlook-december-2017\/\">Oil Price Outlook December 2017<\/a><span style=\"color: #333333; font-size: 16px;\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bp.com\/en\/global\/corporate\/energy-economics\/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html\">here<\/a>. As such it uses that review\u2019s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/blog171220a.png\" alt=\"chart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 1: World Oil Production 1990 \u2013 2017<\/strong><br \/>\nThis analysis was prompted by a chart by Ovi showing that Non-OPEC production less Russia, Canada and the United States has been in decline since 2004. That decline rate is 0.25 million barrels\/day\/annum. It had previously risen strongly from 1990.<span id=\"more-18272\"><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/blog171220b.png\" alt=\"chart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 2: Production Rate Change 2007 \u2013 2016<\/strong><br \/>\nThe United States LTO patch is widely credited with having caused the oil price collapse of 2014. American production had risen by six million barrels per day since 2007. The United States was not alone with four other countries totalling six million barrels per day of production increase. Iraq and Saudi Arabia contributed two million barrels per day each with Russia and Canada contributing one million barrels per day each.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/blog171220c.png\" alt=\"chart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 3: World Oil Consumption 1990 \u2013 2016<\/strong><br \/>\nOECD consumption has been flat even as OECD countries have had an increase in GDP.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/blog171220d.png\" alt=\"chart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 4: Where the Oil Went<\/strong><br \/>\nThe fall of non-OECD consumption from 1990 to 1996 was due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Since then consumption growth has been steady at about 835,000 barrels\/day\/annum. Chinese consumption growth was 240,000 barrels\/day\/annum up to 2002 and then steepened to 512,000 barrels\/day\/annum since. OECD consumption growth was strong up to 2007 and then demand contracted due to higher oil prices. From here it looks like OECD consumption has plateaued. China may have also plateaued. Non-OECD consumption is likely to continue rising with a large part of that being due to India.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/blog171220e.png\" alt=\"chart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Figure 5: World Oil Production from 1990 with a Projection to 2025<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"entry-utility\"><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oil Price Outlook December 2017\u00a0 This assessment is based on the data in the 2017 BP Statistical Review of World Energy available here. As such it uses that review\u2019s definition of oil which is crude and condensate and natural gas liquids, uncompensated for their different energy contents or values of refined product components. Figure 1: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[6380,14389,442,2603,2604,592,595,600,617,6245,6957,6073],"class_list":["post-29055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy","tag-david-archibald","tag-iraq","tag-light-tight-oil","tag-lto","tag-oil-price","tag-oil-production","tag-opec","tag-peak-oil","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-permian","tag-world-oil-production"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29055"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29055\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29056,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29055\/revisions\/29056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}