{"id":29028,"date":"2017-12-20T08:45:23","date_gmt":"2017-12-20T13:45:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=29028"},"modified":"2017-12-20T08:45:23","modified_gmt":"2017-12-20T13:45:23","slug":"a-12-year-old-bet-on-global-warming-is-about-to-pay-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=29028","title":{"rendered":"A 12-Year-Old Bet on Global Warming Is About to Pay Out"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 id=\"page-title\" class=\"page__title title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/2017\/12\/19\/12-year-old-bet-global-warming-about-pay-out\">A 12-Year-Old Bet on Global Warming Is About to Pay Out<\/a><\/h3>\n<article class=\"node-12467 node node-blog node-promoted view-mode-full clearfix\">\n<div class=\"field field-name-field-bimage field-type-image field-label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item even\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/sites\/beta.desmogblog.com\/files\/styles\/full_width_blog_image\/public\/blogimages\/gistemp.jpg?itok=jWEsjKxV\" alt=\"Map from 2005 showing global warming\" width=\"774\" height=\"488\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"new-horizontal-social-bar clearfix\">A climate change modeler who bet two Russian solar physicists $10,000 that the world would get warmer appears to have easily won the 2005 wager with less than two weeks to\u00a0go.<\/div>\n<div class=\"field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden\">\n<div class=\"field-items\">\n<div class=\"field-item even\">\n<p>British scientist James Annan says he is \u201cconfident\u201d that he has won his bet with the Russian pair Galina Mashnich and Vladimir\u00a0Bashkirtsev.<\/p>\n<p>Agreed 12 years ago, Annan bet the Russians that the six years between 2012 and 2017 would be warmer than the six years between 1998 and\u00a02003.<\/p>\n<p>Both sides of the bet agreed to use <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncdc.noaa.gov\/cag\/time-series\/global\/globe\/land_ocean\/ytd\/12\/1880-2016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">temperature data from the <span class=\"caps\">U.S.<\/span> National Climatic Data Center<\/a>, which has since been renamed the National Centers for Environmental\u00a0Information.<\/p>\n<p>Annan was sure that human emissions of carbon dioxide, mainly from fossil fuel burning, would see temperatures\u00a0climb.<\/p>\n<p>The two Russian scientists looked at forecasts of a drop in the amount of energy coming from the sun, and put their money on this keeping temperatures\u00a0down.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/planet-oz\/2017\/dec\/19\/checkmate-how-do-climate-science-deniers-predictions-stack-up\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Annan told the Guardian<\/a>: \u201cYes, I am confident of winning the bet, even the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2017\/nov\/26\/balis-mount-agung-jetstar-flights-resume-after-volcanos-second-eruption\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">threatened eruption of Agung<\/a> [a volcano in Bali] couldn\u2019t matter \u2026 even if it had happened earlier this\u00a0year.<\/p>\n<p><span class=\"dquo\">\u201c<\/span>With only a few weeks to go, there is no chance of sufficient cooling for me to\u00a0lose.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Annan last <a href=\"https:\/\/julesandjames.blogspot.com.au\/2015\/01\/temperature-bet-update.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">looked in detail at the progress of the bet in 2015<\/a>, and even then he appeared to be well in\u00a0front.<\/p>\n<p>Between 1998 and 2003, temperatures across the six-year period were about 0.54\u00b0C above the 20<sup>th<\/sup> century average.\u00a0In the five years between 2012 and 2016, that number is 0.78\u00a0\u00b0C.<\/p>\n<p>With only two weeks of data to come, scientists have already predicted that<a href=\"https:\/\/public.wmo.int\/en\/media\/press-release\/2017-set-be-top-three-hottest-years-record-breaking-extreme-weather\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"> 2017 will either be the second or third hottest year<\/a>on\u00a0record.<\/p>\n<p>British climate science denier <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmog.uk\/piers-corbyn\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Piers Corbyn<\/a>, brother of <span class=\"caps\">UK<\/span> opposition leader Jeremy<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/436897a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">, told Nature in 2005<\/a> that he would have been willing to also take a similar $10,000\u00a0bet.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A 12-Year-Old Bet on Global Warming Is About to Pay Out A climate change modeler who bet two Russian solar physicists $10,000 that the world would get warmer appears to have easily won the 2005 wager with less than two weeks to\u00a0go. British scientist James Annan says he is \u201cconfident\u201d that he has won his [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[5317,17601,369,11559,17600,17602,17599],"class_list":["post-29028","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-environment","tag-desmog-blog","tag-galena-mashnich","tag-global-warming","tag-graham-readfearn","tag-james-annan","tag-vladimir-bashkirtsev","tag-warming-temperatures"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29028","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29028"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29028\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29029,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29028\/revisions\/29029"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29028"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29028"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29028"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}