{"id":28985,"date":"2017-12-18T20:59:54","date_gmt":"2017-12-19T01:59:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=28985"},"modified":"2017-12-18T20:59:54","modified_gmt":"2017-12-19T01:59:54","slug":"chinas-growth-story-dont-look-for-a-happy-ending","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=28985","title":{"rendered":"China’s Growth Story…Don’t Look For a Happy Ending!"},"content":{"rendered":"

China’s Growth Story…Don’t Look For a Happy Ending!<\/a><\/h3>\n
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Many economists suggest China is on the cusp of significant growth in domestic consumer demand as China shifts from exporter to consumer.\u00a0\u00a0These economists postulate that rising domestic demand coupled with\u00a0continued\u00a0growth\u00a0as\u00a0the<\/u><\/em> global exporter will push both China and the\u00a0global economy into high gear.\u00a0 China suggests that it\u00a0will achieve\u00a06.5% annual GDP growth.\u00a0 However, I’ll briefly show why none of these outcomes\u00a0is remotely likely.<\/div>\n
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Problem #1- China as Consumer:<\/div>\n

According to the UN data, China’s 15-40yr\/old childbearing population peaked in 2005 and has been rapidly shrinking since.\u00a0 Since ’05, China’s population capable of producing\u00a0more Chinese has fallen\u00a0by 83 million persons or a 14.3% decline.\u00a0 By 2030, China’s childbearing\u00a0population will have declined by 157 million or a 27% reduction of those capable of childbirth (no estimate here…this is simply moving the existing population forward in adulthood).\u00a0 Couple a massive decline in the childbearing population and\u00a0the ongoing\u00a0negative birthrate and serious depopulation (particularly among the rural regions)\u00a0is not only possible but growing more likely.\u00a0 Minor increases in wages will be no match for the massive declines in the consumer base.<\/p>\n

The chart below shows China’s total 15 to 40 year old population (in\u00a0blue)\u00a0and the annual change (in red).<\/p>\n

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As for China’s\u00a040 to 65 year old population, peak annual growth is well in the rear view mirror but one final bump in population growth remains before depopulation ensues.\u00a0 However, the mild acceleration in growth will be more than offset by the declining 15 to 40yr\/olds (chart below).<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Simply put, China has seen peak domestic consumption and peak demand.\u00a0 The impact of\u00a0large, growing declines in the consumer base are only being\u00a0masked by massive central monetization and wasteful misallocation of resources.\u00a0 That misallocation has resulted in China’s massive surge\u00a0in energy consumption.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

China’s Growth Story…Don’t Look For a Happy Ending! Many economists suggest China is on the cusp of significant growth in domestic consumer demand as China shifts from exporter to consumer.\u00a0\u00a0These economists postulate that rising domestic demand coupled with\u00a0continued\u00a0growth\u00a0as\u00a0the global exporter will push both China and the\u00a0global economy into high gear.\u00a0 China suggests that it\u00a0will achieve\u00a06.5% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[17577,130,17576,14704,353,391,1160,822,826],"class_list":["post-28985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-birthrate","tag-china","tag-consumer-demand","tag-economica","tag-gdp","tag-growth","tag-population-growth","tag-un","tag-united-nations"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28985"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28985\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28986,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28985\/revisions\/28986"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}