{"id":27840,"date":"2017-11-11T09:19:57","date_gmt":"2017-11-11T14:19:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27840"},"modified":"2017-11-11T09:19:57","modified_gmt":"2017-11-11T14:19:57","slug":"end-of-oil-narratives-are-misleading","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27840","title":{"rendered":"\u201cEnd Of Oil\u201d Narratives Are Misleading"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u201cEnd Of Oil\u201d Narratives Are Misleading<\/a><\/h3>\n\"Oil\"<\/picture>\n
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The world isn\u2019t reinventing the wheel. But we are changing how it turns, who it carries and where it\u2019s going.<\/p>\n

Over the next few decades we\u2019ll be plugging in more cars, hailing and sharing them, and reminiscing about the good ol\u2019 days of the steering wheel.<\/p>\n

To be sure, these looming mobility changes are all exciting and impactful. But none of these nascent trends extrapolate easily into a narrative about \u201cthe end of oil,\u201d a disruptive displacement of the fuel everyone loves to hate.<\/p>\n

Contrary to armchair calculus, more electric vehicle (EV) sales do not equate to the world using less oil anytime soon.<\/p>\n

In fact, whichever way you cut the spreadsheets, the numbers are pointing in the opposite direction. By 2030, less than 15 years from now, I expect around 400 million more internal combustion engines will accumulate into the global fleet of passenger cars \u2013 even after assuming that EV market penetration is accelerated with the heavy-handed help of governments around the world.<\/p>\n

Here is an indication of the scale of vehicle accumulation: So far this year, to the end of September, over 70 million vehicles with internal combustion engines have been sold worldwide. Every new vehicle that\u2019s sold lingers in the fleet.<\/p>\n

Simplistic assumptions and analogies abound. A petroleum-powered vehicle is not like a cheap DVD or videocassette that gets pitched out the minute you buy a Netflix subscription. A car already on the road is an expensive asset \u2013most often financed with debt \u2013 that\u2019s put to work for as long as possible by a string of owners. What\u2019s under-appreciated is that most oil-burning vehicles will resist going to the scrap yard, due to their stubborn and improving reliability (see my column\u00a0Old Pistons Die Hard\u00a0<\/em>from October 16th<\/sup><\/a>.)<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u201cEnd Of Oil\u201d Narratives Are Misleading The world isn\u2019t reinventing the wheel. But we are changing how it turns, who it carries and where it\u2019s going. Over the next few decades we\u2019ll be plugging in more cars, hailing and sharing them, and reminiscing about the good ol\u2019 days of the steering wheel. To be sure, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[13520,13275,16959,16960,9211,588,5332,16958],"class_list":["post-27840","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-automobiles","tag-electric-vehicles","tag-end-of-oil","tag-ev","tag-internal-combustion-engine","tag-oil","tag-oilprice-com","tag-peter-tertzakian"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27840","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27840"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27840\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27841,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27840\/revisions\/27841"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27840"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27840"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27840"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}