{"id":27830,"date":"2017-11-10T06:49:51","date_gmt":"2017-11-10T11:49:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27830"},"modified":"2017-11-10T06:49:51","modified_gmt":"2017-11-10T11:49:51","slug":"interest-rates-will-double","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27830","title":{"rendered":"Interest Rates will Double"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Interest Rates will Double<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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QUESTION:<\/strong> Mr. Armstrong; Thank you for an excellent conference. I have been attending since 2011. Each time you deliver a different conference and they\u00a0are always better than the last. I could not help to notice on Zero Hedge they ran a piece about a\u00a0Harvard University\u2019s visiting scholar at the Bank of England who claims:<\/p>\n

\u201cWe trace the use of the dominant risk-free asset over time, starting with sovereign rates in the Italian city states in the 14th and 15th centuries, later switching to long-term rates in Spain, followed by the Province of Holland, since 1703 the UK, subsequently Germany, and finally the US.\u201d<\/p>\n

Besides claiming to calculate the 700-year average real rate at 4.78% suggesting that rates will rise sharply when your models are 5,000 years, the two ridiculous statements are a 700-year average as if this really means something in the near-term when rates have been below that for nearly 10 years, and second the statement that he traces \u201cthe dominant risk-free asset over time.\u201d You have demonstrated that moving averages are not valid in forecasting and that government routinely defaults.<\/p>\n

You forecast at the conference that rates would rise very rapidly as we move into the Monetary Crisis Cycle. When I returned home to Greece, the latest news here is that so many people do not even have the money left to pay taxes. Is this part of the first stone in the water that sets off the waves of the Monetary Crisis Cycle?<\/p>\n

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ANSWER:<\/strong> It is very nice to trace 700 years and come up with the average of 4.78% by switching to the dominant economy as the financial capital of the world moved. However, starting the study in the 14th century skips the crazy part. There was the Great Financial Crisis of 1092<\/strong><\/a> in Byzantium.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Interest Rates will Double QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Thank you for an excellent conference. I have been attending since 2011. Each time you deliver a different conference and they\u00a0are always better than the last. I could not help to notice on Zero Hedge they ran a piece about a\u00a0Harvard University\u2019s visiting scholar at the Bank of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5496,431,5479],"class_list":["post-27830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-armstrong-economics","tag-interest-rates","tag-martin-armstrong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27830"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27830\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27831,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27830\/revisions\/27831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}