{"id":27609,"date":"2017-11-04T14:23:56","date_gmt":"2017-11-04T19:23:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27609"},"modified":"2017-11-04T14:23:56","modified_gmt":"2017-11-04T19:23:56","slug":"former-prime-minister-howard-assumes-us-shale-oil-will-provide-for-chinas-oil-demand-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27609","title":{"rendered":"Former Prime Minister Howard assumes US shale oil will provide for China\u2019s oil demand growth"},"content":{"rendered":"

Former Prime Minister Howard assumes US shale oil will provide for China\u2019s oil demand growth<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n
\n

Australia in Today\u2019s World \u2013 some observations from former PM John Howard
\nhttps:\/\/aiiansw.tidyhq.com\/public\/schedule\/events\/16630-australia-in-today-s-world-some-observations-from-former-pm-john-howard<\/a><\/p>\n

John Howard was happy to report that Chinese GDP growth is 6% and that a great future lies ahead for Australia.<\/p>\n

In Q&A I asked him:<\/p>\n

\u201cAre you aware that Chinese oil production peaked in 2015? Therefore China is now where the US was in 1970 when US production peaked. That was followed by the Nixon shock in which the US cancelled the convertibility of the US$ to gold. In 2016, China\u2019s oil demand growth was around half a million barrels per day. Multiply this by 10 years and where will 5 mb\/d come from?\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

Here are a couple of graphs which highlight the situation:<\/p>\n

\"China_crude_production_2002-Jul2017_JODI\"Fig 1: China\u2019s oil production<\/p>\n

\"China_demand_by_product_2015-Sep17_IEA-OMR\"<\/p>\n

Fig 2: China\u2019s oil demand by fuel<\/p>\n

Note that only 24% of fuels (and 18% of growth) is petrol which means electric cars won\u2019t help much.<\/p>\n

\"Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2016_fill_in-2036\"<\/p>\n

Fig 3: Asia Pacific oil production vs consumption<\/p>\n

The above is my\u00a0favorite graph to show that there cannot be perpetual growth in the \u201cAsian Century\u201d<\/p>\n

Howard\u2019s answer:<\/h4>\n

\u201cI was never asked this question\u2026.from US shale oil I guess\u201d<\/h4>\n

Let\u2019s have a look at the US crude oil projections from the Energy Information Administration done in January 2017:<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Former Prime Minister Howard assumes US shale oil will provide for China\u2019s oil demand growth Australia in Today\u2019s World \u2013 some observations from former PM John Howard https:\/\/aiiansw.tidyhq.com\/public\/schedule\/events\/16630-australia-in-today-s-world-some-observations-from-former-pm-john-howard John Howard was happy to report that Chinese GDP growth is 6% and that a great future lies ahead for Australia. In Q&A I asked him: \u201cAre […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[34,41,130,8241,6658,827],"class_list":["post-27609","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-asia","tag-australia","tag-china","tag-john-howard","tag-south-east-asia","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27609","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27609"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27609\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27610,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27609\/revisions\/27610"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27609"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27609"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27609"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}