{"id":27535,"date":"2017-11-01T19:54:50","date_gmt":"2017-11-02T00:54:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27535"},"modified":"2017-11-01T19:54:50","modified_gmt":"2017-11-02T00:54:50","slug":"the-changing-geopolitics-of-energy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27535","title":{"rendered":"The Changing Geopolitics of Energy"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"small-12 medium-10 medium-offset-1 large-8 large-offset-2 xlarge-7 columns article__title article__title--main u-mb-se\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.project-syndicate.org\/commentary\/shale-energy-geopolitical-consequences-by-joseph-s--nye-2017-11#comments\">The Changing Geopolitics of Energy<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"small-12 medium-10 medium-offset-1 large-8 large-offset-2 xlarge-6 xlarge-offset-3 columns\">\n<section class=\"article__abs u-mt-se\" dir=\"ltr\">In 2008, US policymakers worried that increasing dependence on energy imports, together with rising prices, would severely constrain American geopolitical influence. Instead, the revolution in shale energy has brought about a tectonic shift in international relations, one that promises to boost US global power in the long term.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<section class=\"article__body article__body--commentary english\" dir=\"ltr\" data-page-area=\"article-body\">\n<p data-line-id=\"cd1847a36f444e2fac91a099e3a790fc\">TOKYO \u2013 In 2008, when the United States\u2019 National Intelligence Council (NIC) published its volume <em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.files.ethz.ch\/isn\/94769\/2008_11_Global_Trends_2025.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Trends 2025<\/a><\/em>, a key prediction was tighter energy competition. Chinese demand was growing, and non-OPEC sources like the North Sea were being depleted. After two decades of low and relatively stable prices, oil prices had soared to more than $100 per barrel in 2006. Many experts spoke of \u201cpeak oil\u201d \u2013 the idea that reserves had \u201ctopped off\u201d \u2013 and anticipated that production would become concentrated in the low-cost but unstable Middle East, where even Saudi Arabia was thought to be fully explored, with no more giant fields likely to be found.<\/p>\n<aside class=\"inlay inlay--slide slide__container show-for-medium editorpick-container\">\n<article id=\"editor-pick-59f9cc0f78b6c708a80349e1\" class=\"listing slide \" data-url=\"missing-emerging-market-debt-defaults-by-carmen-reinhart-2017-11\" data-page-area=\"editorpicks\"><\/article>\n<div class=\"inlay__controls\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n<div class=\"flex button__group slide__nav\">The US was regarded as increasingly dependent on energy imports, and this, together with rising prices, was seen as a major limit on American geopolitical influence. Power had shifted to the producers.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<p data-line-id=\"52adfc058ac44608b4767080580e12d3\">The NIC analysts did not neglect the possibility of a technological surprise, but they focused on the wrong technology. Emphasizing the potential of renewables such as solar, wind, and hydro, they missed the main act.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"ad4372fb07234e36a6c30f0bef1f5151\">The real technological breakthrough was the shale-energy revolution. While horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing are not new, their pioneering application to shale rock was. By 2015, more than half of all the natural gas produced in the US came from shale.<\/p>\n<p data-line-id=\"9dac8da5e7674faf957b600ed8fc99c8\">The shale boom has propelled the US from being an energy importer to an energy exporter. The US Energy Department estimates that the country has 25 trillion cubic meters of technically recoverable shale gas, which, when combined with other oil and gas resources, could last for two centuries.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Changing Geopolitics of Energy In 2008, US policymakers worried that increasing dependence on energy imports, together with rising prices, would severely constrain American geopolitical influence. Instead, the revolution in shale energy has brought about a tectonic shift in international relations, one that promises to boost US global power in the long term. TOKYO \u2013 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,5],"tags":[130,16827,600,827,7590,846],"class_list":["post-27535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","category-geopolitics","tag-china","tag-joseph-s-nye","tag-opec","tag-united-states","tag-us-shale-gas","tag-us-shale-oil"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27535"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27535\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27536,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27535\/revisions\/27536"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}