{"id":27008,"date":"2017-10-19T08:07:25","date_gmt":"2017-10-19T13:07:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27008"},"modified":"2017-10-19T08:07:25","modified_gmt":"2017-10-19T13:07:25","slug":"the-approaching-us-energy-economic-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=27008","title":{"rendered":"The Approaching US Energy-Economic\u00a0Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ourfiniteworld.com\/2017\/10\/18\/the-approaching-us-energy-economic-crisis\/\" rel=\"bookmark\">The Approaching US Energy-Economic\u00a0Crisis<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>I was recently asked to give a talk called, \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/tverberg_approaching-us-energy-economic-crisis-final1.pdf\">The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis<\/a>.\u201d In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis?\u00a0As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting enough taxes) are issues that we are already beginning to encounter.<\/p>\n<p>In this talk, I first discuss the connection between energy and the economy. Without this connection, it doesn\u2019t make sense to talk about a crisis arising with respect to energy and the economy. I then discuss seven issues that could lead to a US energy-economic crisis.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Economic Growth Is Closely Tied to Energy Consumption<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If we look at world data, it is clear that there is a close tie between energy consumption and economic growth.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_42296\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" data-shortcode=\"caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-42296\" src=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png?w=640&amp;h=454\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png?w=640&amp;h=454 640w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png?w=150&amp;h=106 150w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png?w=300&amp;h=213 300w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png?w=768&amp;h=545 768w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png 931w\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"454\" data-attachment-id=\"42296\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/ourfiniteworld.com\/2017\/10\/18\/the-approaching-us-energy-economic-crisis\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png\" data-orig-size=\"931,661\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"2. Energy consumption and GDP highly correlated\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/2-energy-consumption-and-gdp-highly-correlated.png?w=640&amp;h=454\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Slide 2<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>On an individual country basis, there can be the belief that we have reached a new situation where a particular country doesn\u2019t really need growing energy supply for economic growth.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_42297\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\" data-shortcode=\"caption\"><a href=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-42297\" src=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png?w=640&amp;h=462\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png?w=640&amp;h=462 640w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png?w=150&amp;h=108 150w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png?w=300&amp;h=216 300w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png?w=768&amp;h=554 768w, https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png 933w\" alt=\"\" width=\"640\" height=\"462\" data-attachment-id=\"42297\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/ourfiniteworld.com\/2017\/10\/18\/the-approaching-us-energy-economic-crisis\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png\" data-orig-size=\"933,673\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"3. US looks like it might be breaking away from energy need\" data-image-description=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png?w=300\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com\/2017\/10\/3-us-looks-like-it-might-be-breaking-away-from-energy-need.png?w=640&amp;h=462\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-caption-text\">Slide 3<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>For example, on Slide 3, the recent nearly vertical line for the US suggests that the US economy can grow with almost no increase in annual energy consumption. This rather strange situation arises because the standard calculation misses energy embodied in imported goods. Thus, if the United States wants to outsource a great deal of its manufacturing to China, the energy consumption used in making these goods will appear in China\u2019s data, not in the United States\u2019 data. This makes the country that has outsourced manufacturing look very good, both with respect to energy consumption and CO2 emissions.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Approaching US Energy-Economic\u00a0Crisis I was recently asked to give a talk called, \u201cThe Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.\u201d In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis?\u00a0As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[264,1233,353,1232,827],"class_list":["post-27008","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-energy-consumption","tag-gail-tverberg","tag-gdp","tag-our-finite-world","tag-united-states"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27008","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27008"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27008\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27009,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27008\/revisions\/27009"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27008"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27008"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27008"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}