{"id":26749,"date":"2017-10-12T07:34:41","date_gmt":"2017-10-12T12:34:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=26749"},"modified":"2017-10-12T07:34:41","modified_gmt":"2017-10-12T12:34:41","slug":"1987-1997-2007-just-how-crash-prone-are-years-ending-in-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=26749","title":{"rendered":"1987, 1997, 2007\u2026 Just How Crash-Prone are Years Ending in 7?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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1987, 1997, 2007\u2026 Just How Crash-Prone are Years Ending in 7? <\/a><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n
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Bad Reputation<\/strong><\/p>\n

Years ending in 7, such as the current year 2017, have a bad reputation among stock market participants. Large price declines tend to occur quite frequently in these years.<\/p>\n

\"\"Sliding down the steep slope of the cursed year. [PT]<\/p>\n

Just think of 1987, the year in which the largest one-day decline in the US stock market in history took place:\u00a0 the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 22.61 percent in a single trading day. Or recall the year 2007, which marked the beginning of the GFC (\u201cgreat financial crisis\u201d).<\/p>\n

Given that the current year is ending in 7 as well, is there a reason to be concerned, or is the year 7 crash\u00a0 pattern a myth?<\/p>\n

The Pattern of the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the Course of a Decade<\/strong><\/p>\n

Below you can see a chart of the typical pattern of the DJIA in the course of a decade. This is not a standard chart. Instead it shows the average price pattern of the DJIA in the course of a decade since 1897.<\/p>\n

The horizontal axis shows the years of the decade, the vertical axis the average performance of the index. Thus one can discern at a glance how the index typically performs in individual years depending on what their last digit happens to be.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"DJIA, typical pattern in the course of a decade since 1897. Years ending in 7 did tend to be marked by large setbacks on average.<\/p>\n

As you can see, in the first half of the decade, i.e. in the years ending in 0 to 4, the DJIA barely rose on average. By contrast, in years ending in 5 (highlighted in yellow above) the performance of the index tended to be particularly strong.<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

1987, 1997, 2007\u2026 Just How Crash-Prone are Years Ending in 7? Bad Reputation Years ending in 7, such as the current year 2017, have a bad reputation among stock market participants. Large price declines tend to occur quite frequently in these years. Sliding down the steep slope of the cursed year. [PT] Just think of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[5728,16268,9257,217,8222,501],"class_list":["post-26749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-acting-man","tag-dimitri-speck","tag-djia","tag-dow-jones","tag-great-financial-crisis","tag-market-crash"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26749","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26749"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26750,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26749\/revisions\/26750"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}