{"id":26487,"date":"2017-10-05T07:08:17","date_gmt":"2017-10-05T12:08:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=26487"},"modified":"2017-10-05T07:08:17","modified_gmt":"2017-10-05T12:08:17","slug":"the-sum-of-all-fears-and-a-few-related-charts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=26487","title":{"rendered":"The Sum of All Fears&#8230;..and a few related charts&#8230;&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<h3><a href=\"https:\/\/deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com\/2017\/10\/the-sum-of-all-fearsand-few-related.html\">The Sum of All Fears&#8230;..and a few related charts&#8230;&#8230;<\/a><\/h3>\n<p>Today, I&#8217;d like to take some time to revisit a couple of related topics that we first started discussing a few years ago. I am, of course, referring to the burgeoning increases in China&#8217;s Debt levels, Shadow Bank Assets (loans) and M2, along with a high-level analysis of the most recent <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbc.gov.cn\/english\/130721\/3390064\/2017092716540370024.pdf\">PBOC Financial Stability Report <\/a>and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fsb.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2016.pdf\">FSB Global Shadow Bank Monitoring Report<\/a>. <em>(No!&#8230;.please don&#8217;t click this page closed&#8230;.I promise this will eventually get interesting&#8230;)<\/em><\/p>\n<p>As a starting point, let&#8217;s begin by reviewing the February, 2015 McKinsey report\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.mckinsey.com\/global-themes\/employment-and-growth\/debt-and-not-much-deleveraging\">\u00a0<em>Debt and (not much)\u00a0Deleveraging<\/em>\u00a0<\/a>. \u00a0I first referenced the report in this blog in\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/deep-throat-ipo.blogspot.com\/2015\/03\/the-china-syndrome.html\">March of 2015<\/a>. The report focused on the world&#8217;s, and particularly China&#8217;s, rapidly building debt\/leverage phenomenon (2014 Year End Data).\u00a0 I encourage you to re-read the entire report, but for those of you who are pressed for time, I&#8217;ll give you the executive summary bullet-points right here:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Debt continues to grow\u00a0\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Reducing government debt will require a wider range of solutions<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Shadow banking has retreated, but non\u2011bank credit remains important\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>Households borrow more<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong>China\u2019s debt is rising rapidly<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I&#8217;m hoping that the McKinsey authors will consider updating the report, bringing the figures current, as I believe these observations, figures and analysis are even more pertinent today than they were back in 2015.<\/p>\n<p><strong><u>China&#8217;s Debt<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So now, using McKinsey as a reference point, let&#8217;s take a look at where we are today, via the FRED (St. Louis FED)data below.<\/p>\n<p>The FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data &#8211; Citations below) Chart below represents <em>US Core Debt<\/em> (as defined and provided by the BIS &#8211; Bureau of International Settlements) compared to <em>China Core Debt,<\/em>\u00a0as a percentage of GDP.<em>\u00a0\u00a0<\/em>The third <strong>(bold Red)<\/strong> line represents China&#8217;s debt levels adjusted for a &#8220;what-if&#8221; constant I&#8217;ll explain shortly.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Sum of All Fears&#8230;..and a few related charts&#8230;&#8230; Today, I&#8217;d like to take some time to revisit a couple of related topics that we first started discussing a few years ago. I am, of course, referring to the burgeoning increases in China&#8217;s Debt levels, Shadow Bank Assets (loans) and M2, along with a high-level [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,195,16310,2914,2615,6876],"class_list":["post-26487","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-debt","tag-deep-throat","tag-pboc","tag-peoples-bank-of-china","tag-shadow-banking"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26487","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26487"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26487\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26488,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26487\/revisions\/26488"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26487"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26487"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26487"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}