{"id":24917,"date":"2017-08-27T17:42:56","date_gmt":"2017-08-27T22:42:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=24917"},"modified":"2017-08-27T17:42:56","modified_gmt":"2017-08-27T22:42:56","slug":"my-prediction-the-coming-collapse-of-chinas-ponzi-scheme-economy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=24917","title":{"rendered":"My prediction: the coming collapse of China\u2019s Ponzi scheme economy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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My prediction: the coming collapse of China\u2019s Ponzi scheme economy<\/a>\u00a0<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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So much production in industries like steel is based on demand for more production, but should that demand falter, the whole system could come crashing down<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Friends who have a greater interest than I do in reading the tea leaves in Beijing tell me that the emphasis in relations with Hong Kong from now on will be on one country rather than two systems.I think this phrases things the wrong way. The one country bit was never in issue.<\/p>\n

What they actually mean to say is that Beijing\u2019s system of state command of the economy will become dominant and Hong Kong\u2019s more freewheeling system will fade away.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think it will happen.<\/p>\n

In my view human society is so dynamic that no command system can last long in charge of an economy. Attempts at this particular form of hubris inevitably end in either war or financial crisis. For the Soviet Union it was financial crisis. I think the same fate awaits Beijing.<\/p>\n

Consider crude steel production, a test-tube example of how command economies get it wrong. In the mainland this stood in June at an all time monthly record of 73 million tonnes, five times the total production in all of Europe.<\/p>\n

Steel was recently targeted for a reduction in capacity but then a regime of easy money intended to help the industry overcome a difficult period of contraction instead stimulated production.<\/p>\n

As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses<\/div>\n

It has happened across the mainland\u2019s rust belt industries.<\/p>\n

Why is so much steel needed?<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My prediction: the coming collapse of China\u2019s Ponzi scheme economy\u00a0 So much production in industries like steel is based on demand for more production, but should that demand falter, the whole system could come crashing down Friends who have a greater interest than I do in reading the tea leaves in Beijing tell me that […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,236,15729,2942,1616,15730],"class_list":["post-24917","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-economic-collapse","tag-jake-van-der-kamp","tag-ponzi","tag-ponzi-scheme","tag-south-china-morning-post"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24917","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24917"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24917\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24918,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24917\/revisions\/24918"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24917"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24917"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24917"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}