{"id":24713,"date":"2017-08-18T12:14:02","date_gmt":"2017-08-18T17:14:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=24713"},"modified":"2017-08-18T12:14:02","modified_gmt":"2017-08-18T17:14:02","slug":"usa-is-now-twice-as-likely-to-default-than-germany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=24713","title":{"rendered":"USA Is Now Twice As Likely To ‘Default’ Than Germany"},"content":{"rendered":"

USA Is Now Twice As Likely To ‘Default’ Than Germany<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n
\n

While the market turmoil (stocks down a few percentage points from all-time record highs) is being pinned on various factors (from North Korea, Trump, & Cohn to terrible retailer earnings and J-Hole anxiety), we suspect the real cause of market uncertainty is starting to peak through – the looming debt ceiling crisis that has now become too big and too imminent to ignore<\/strong><\/em>.<\/p>\n

Of course, uncertainty in The White House is starting to make investors realize the chance of successfully navigating the debt ceiling crisis without a government shutdown are dwindling…<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

With the T-Bill market pricing in serious disruption at the end of September, the risk of a technical default for US Treasury debt is starting to rise and is now spiking relative to Germany.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n

<\/a><\/p>\n

In fact, as the chart above shows, the current ‘risk’ in USA debt\/devaluation markets is twice that of Germany’s <\/strong>– worse than at the peak of the shutdown in 2013 and worse than the shutdown debacle in 2015.<\/p>\n

USA Default Risk premium has not been this high since Lehman.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

USA Is Now Twice As Likely To ‘Default’ Than Germany While the market turmoil (stocks down a few percentage points from all-time record highs) is being pinned on various factors (from North Korea, Trump, & Cohn to terrible retailer earnings and J-Hole anxiety), we suspect the real cause of market uncertainty is starting to peak […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[15638,200,7844,359,3558,753,827,2721],"class_list":["post-24713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-cohn","tag-default","tag-donald-trump","tag-germany","tag-korea","tag-stocks","tag-united-states","tag-us-treasuries"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24713","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24713"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24713\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24714,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24713\/revisions\/24714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24713"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24713"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24713"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}