{"id":24704,"date":"2017-08-17T19:14:46","date_gmt":"2017-08-18T00:14:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=24704"},"modified":"2017-08-17T19:14:46","modified_gmt":"2017-08-18T00:14:46","slug":"analyst-lays-out-chinas-doomsday-scenario","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=24704","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Lays Out China’s “Doomsday” Scenario"},"content":{"rendered":"

Analyst Lays Out China’s “Doomsday” Scenario<\/a><\/h3>\n
<\/section>\n
\n
The first time we laid out the dire calculations about what is perhaps the biggest mystery inside China’s financial system, namely the total amount of its non-performing loans, by former Fitch analyst Charlene Chu we called it a “neutron bomb” <\/strong>scenario<\/a>, because unlike virtually every other rosy forecast the most dire of which topped out at around 8%, Chu argued that the amount of bad debt in China was no less than a whopping 21% of total loans.<\/strong><\/div>\n
\n
\n

Corporate investigator Violet Ho never put a lot of faith in the bad loan numbers reported by China\u2019s banks<\/strong>: crisscrossing provinces from Shandong to Xinjiang, she\u2019s seen too much – from the shell game of moving assets between affiliated companies to disguise the true state of their finances to cover-ups by bankers loath to admit that loans they made won\u2019t be recovered. The amount of bad debt piling up in China is at the center of a debate about whether the country will continue as a locomotive of global growth or sink into decades of stagnation like Japan after its credit bubble burst. Bank of China Ltd. reported on Thursday its biggest quarterly bad-loan provisions since going public in 2006.<\/p>\n

Charlene Chu, who made her name at Fitch Ratings making bearish assessments of the risks from China\u2019s credit explosion since 2008, is among those crunching the numbers. While corporate investigator Ho relies on her observations from hitting the road, Chu and her colleagues at Autonomous Research in Hong Kong take a top-down approach. They estimate how much money is being wasted after the nation began getting smaller and smaller economic returns on its credit from 2008. Their assessment is informed by data from economies such as Japan that have gone though similar debt explosions.<\/p>\n

While traditional bank loans are not Chu\u2019s prime focus — she looks at the wider picture, including shadow banking — she says her work suggests that nonperforming loans may be at 20 percent to 21 percent, or even higher.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Analyst Lays Out China’s “Doomsday” Scenario The first time we laid out the dire calculations about what is perhaps the biggest mystery inside China’s financial system, namely the total amount of its non-performing loans, by former Fitch analyst Charlene Chu we called it a “neutron bomb” scenario, because unlike virtually every other rosy forecast the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[130,7170,4318],"class_list":["post-24704","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-china","tag-doomsday","tag-zerohedge"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24704","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24704"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24704\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24705,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24704\/revisions\/24705"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24704"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24704"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24704"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}