{"id":23566,"date":"2017-04-14T12:43:07","date_gmt":"2017-04-14T17:43:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=23566"},"modified":"2017-04-14T12:44:05","modified_gmt":"2017-04-14T17:44:05","slug":"australia-more-vulnerable-than-ever-to-fuel-import-disruptions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=23566","title":{"rendered":"Australia more vulnerable than ever to fuel import disruptions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Australia more vulnerable than ever to fuel import disruptions<\/a><\/h3>\n
\n

This is because after the closure of 3 oil refineries in Sydney and Brisbane fuel imports have skyrocketed and these additional imports come from and pass through an area where there are high tensions now: the South China Sea and Korea.<\/p>\n

\"Vinson10\"<\/p>\n

Fig 1: USS Carl Vinson<\/p>\n

10\/4\/2017 A US Navy strike group including a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier has moved into a strategic position in the Western Pacific Ocean, just off the Korean peninsula.
\nhttp:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/pm\/content\/2016\/s4651328.htm<\/a><\/p>\n

Apr 13 2017 U.S. May Launch Strike If North Korea Reaches For Nuclear Trigger
\nhttp:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/news\/world\/u-s-may-launch-strike-if-north-korea-reaches-nuclear-n746366<\/a><\/p>\n

Asian oil supply context<\/strong><\/h4>\n

This comes at a time when Asian oil production is on an oil production plateau for 5 years now while oil demand seems to increase forever.<\/p>\n

\"Asia_oil_production_consumption_2005-2015_fill_in-2035\"<\/p>\n

Fig 2: Asia\u2019s oil consumption growth is unsustainable<\/p>\n

\"Asian_refinery_capacities_1965-2015\"<\/p>\n

Fig 3: Stellar growth in Asian refinery capacities<\/p>\n

Note that growth in the last 15 years has come only from 3 countries: China, India and South Korea. Singapore\u2019s refining capacity and that of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan is basically flat. Japan\u2019s capacity is in decline.<\/p>\n

Most of Asia\u2019s oil imports come from the Middle East as this tanker map shows:<\/p>\n

\"Tanker_traffic_ME-Asia_Apr2017\"
\nFig 4: Tanker traffic between the Middle East and Asia
\nhttps:\/\/www.marinetraffic.com\/en\/ais\/home\/centerx:119\/centery:-2\/zoom:3<\/p>\n

Australia net oil importer<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"Australia_oil_production_vs_consumption_1965-2015\"Fig 5: Australian oil balance<\/p>\n

\"Australia_crude_condensate_production_1990-Dec2017\"<\/p>\n

Fig 6: Australian oil production decline<\/p>\n

Australian crude oil imports<\/strong><\/h4>\n

\"Australian_crude_oil_imports_by_country_2004_Jan2017\"<\/p>\n

Fig 7: Australian crude oil imports<\/p>\n

Fig 7 shows:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Crude imports from neighbouring Asian countries peaked 12\/2007<\/li>\n
  • Imports from Vietnam declined dramatically to 2% of imports because Vietnam\u2019s crude production peaked in 2004-05<\/li>\n
  • UAE is the only long-term supplier from Middle East (19% of imports)<\/li>\n
  • Decline from Asia was compensated by imports from West Africa \u2013 good job<\/li>\n
  • Crude imports declined from 550 kb\/d to around 350 kb\/d as Australian refineries closed<\/li>\n
  • Before the refinery closures the diversity of crude imports was quite high and \u2013 given Australia\u2019s remoteness on the global oil trade map \u2013 these refineries did a good job in sourcing crude oil from far away like Russia, Azerbaijan, the Mediterranean and West Africa<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    …click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Australia more vulnerable than ever to fuel import disruptions This is because after the closure of 3 oil refineries in Sydney and Brisbane fuel imports have skyrocketed and these additional imports come from and pass through an area where there are high tensions now: the South China Sea and Korea. Fig 1: USS Carl Vinson […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[41,6292,15106,15107,3558,1439,15105],"class_list":["post-23566","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-australia","tag-crude-oil-peak","tag-energy-imports","tag-fuel-imports","tag-korea","tag-south-china-sea","tag-use-carl-vinson"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23566","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23566"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23566\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23567,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23566\/revisions\/23567"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23566"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23566"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23566"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}