{"id":23418,"date":"2017-04-02T11:11:57","date_gmt":"2017-04-02T16:11:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=23418"},"modified":"2017-04-02T11:11:57","modified_gmt":"2017-04-02T16:11:57","slug":"maybe-the-recovery-wasnt-real-after-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=23418","title":{"rendered":"Maybe The Recovery Wasn\u2019t Real After All"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Maybe The Recovery Wasn\u2019t Real After All<\/a><\/h3>\n

For a while there it looked like the US and its main trading partners had finally achieved escape velocity. Growth was up, inflation was poking through the Fed\u2019s 2% target, and most measures of consumer sentiment<\/a> were bordering on euphoric.<\/p>\n<\/header>\n

\n

Then it all started to evaporate. Lackluster manufacturing and consumer spending reports sent the Atlanta Fed\u2019s reading of Q1 GDP <\/a>off a cliff to less than 1%:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

And this morning the Wall Street Journal highlighted some recent changes in the yield curve that point towards further slowing:<\/p>\n

Flatter Yield Curve in 2017 Shows Growth Concern Lingers<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Long-term Treasury yields have declined modestly, while short-term yields have risen.A flattening of the Treasury yield curve in 2017 is a worrying sign for investors banking on resurgent U.S. inflation and growth.<\/p>\n

Long-term Treasury yields, which are largely driven by the U.S. economic and inflation outlook, have declined modestly this year, following a sharp rise in the wake of the November election of Donald Trump as president. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen to 2.396% from 2.446% at the end of 2016.<\/p>\n

At the same time, short-term yields, which are more influenced by monetary policy, have risen in 2017 as Federal Reserve officials have made clear that they expect to continue raising the fed-funds rate through the rest of the year.
\nAs a result, the yield premium on the 10-year note relative to the two-year note\u2014known in the market as the 2-10 spread\u2014slipped Wednesday to 1.107 percentage points, its lowest level since the election.<\/p>\n

FIRST QUARTER REPORT CARD
\nWhile the yield curve, like all market indicators, is subject to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, economic data and political developments, a flattening yield curve gets special attention from investors world-wide because it can serve as an early signal of both economic slowing and overpricing in riskier asset classes.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Maybe The Recovery Wasn\u2019t Real After All For a while there it looked like the US and its main trading partners had finally achieved escape velocity. Growth was up, inflation was poking through the Fed\u2019s 2% target, and most measures of consumer sentiment were bordering on euphoric. Then it all started to evaporate. Lackluster manufacturing […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[213,303,353,7544,670,3650],"class_list":["post-23418","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-dollar-collapse","tag-fed","tag-gdp","tag-john-rubino","tag-recovery","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23418","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23418"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23418\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23419,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23418\/revisions\/23419"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23418"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23418"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23418"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}