{"id":23032,"date":"2017-02-28T15:32:23","date_gmt":"2017-02-28T20:32:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=23032"},"modified":"2017-02-28T15:32:23","modified_gmt":"2017-02-28T20:32:23","slug":"contemplations-for-a-sunday-unless-you-cant-get-around-to-it-til-monday","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=23032","title":{"rendered":"Contemplations for a Sunday (unless you can’t get around to it til Monday)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Contemplations for a Sunday (unless you can’t get around to it til Monday)<\/a><\/h3>\n
Some simple themes today…<\/p>\n
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Population growth, economic growth, and\u00a0resultant energy consumption are inexorably slowing.\u00a0 The Federal Reserve knows it can not\u00a0stop this and is simply slowing the inevitable with\u00a0interest rate cuts\u00a0to incent greater\u00a0consumption via skyrocketing\u00a0credit\/debt (particularly government debt….debt that is undertaken with no intent of ever repaying it and is\u00a0really just pure monetization).<\/div>\n
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The chart below highlights that employment among 25-54yr\/olds (the foundation of US consumption) ceased growing in ’00.\u00a0 Once employment among\u00a0this group ceased growing, total US energy consumption also ceased growing, and\u00a0accelerating debt was substituted to maintain growth thanks to nearly 40yrs of interest rate cuts.<\/div>\n
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The impact of the declining rates and rising debt can be seen in the Wilshire 5000 (chart below).\u00a0 The\u00a0Wilshire\u00a0represents all publicly traded US equities radically moving\u00a0upward with surging US federal debt\u00a0but\u00a0inverse to US total energy consumption, jobs creation, and economic activity since ’00.<\/div>\n
The driver of\u00a0the Fed’s federal funds rate\u00a0was and\u00a0continues to be the rate of\u00a0population growth and the growing demand this population growth represents.\u00a0\u00a0The adult population growth rate\u00a0peaked in ’79\u00a0and the federal funds rate peaked in ’80…rates\u00a0plus population growth have been decelerating\/declining together since.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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The chart below showing the 0-64yr\/old\u00a0population growth\u00a0vs. 65+yr\/old growth.\u00a0 The demographic and population situation only continues to get worse.\u00a0 In fact, it’s unlikely the 0-64yr\/old population growth will\u00a0hit the\u00a0already low estimates from 2017–>2030\u00a0due to\u00a0the ongoing decline in\u00a0birth rates and slowing immigration.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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What about employment?\u00a0 Chart below shows total full time jobs growth has slowed to a trickle (net basis from peak to peak) and total energy consumption growth\u00a0likewise decelerating, peaking in ’05, and now declining.\u00a0 Federal funds rate moving inversely, all the way to zero.\u00a0 Finally,\u00a0Public US Federal debt (w\/out Intra-governmental holdings) skyrocketing.<\/div>\n
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…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Contemplations for a Sunday (unless you can’t get around to it til Monday) Some simple themes today… Population growth, economic growth, and\u00a0resultant energy consumption are inexorably slowing.\u00a0 The Federal Reserve knows it can not\u00a0stop this and is simply slowing the inevitable with\u00a0interest rate cuts\u00a0to incent greater\u00a0consumption via skyrocketing\u00a0credit\/debt (particularly government debt….debt that is undertaken with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,3],"tags":[175,195,240,14704,264,303,1160,14916,3650],"class_list":["post-23032","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","category-energy-2","tag-credit","tag-debt","tag-economic-growth","tag-economica","tag-energy-consumption","tag-fed","tag-population-growth","tag-us-consumption","tag-us-federal-reserve"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23032","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=23032"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23032\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23033,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23032\/revisions\/23033"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=23032"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=23032"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=23032"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}