{"id":22998,"date":"2017-02-25T17:50:33","date_gmt":"2017-02-25T22:50:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=22998"},"modified":"2017-02-25T17:50:33","modified_gmt":"2017-02-25T22:50:33","slug":"it-gets-ugly-in-brazil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=22998","title":{"rendered":"It Gets Ugly in Brazil"},"content":{"rendered":"
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It Gets Ugly in Brazil<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n
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The price of\u00a0corruption.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In a stunning deterioration, the unemployment rate in Brazil spiked to 12.6% in the rolling three-month period through January, a record in the new data series going back to 2012, according to Brazil\u2019s statistical agency\u00a0IBGE<\/a>. Up from 11.8% in the three-month period through October. Up from an already terribly high 9.5% a year ago. And more than double the 6.2% in December 2013.<\/p>\n

Economists had expected the unemployment rate to rise to 12.4%. After three years of underestimating the political, fiscal, and economic fiasco in Brazil, they\u2019re still underestimating it.<\/p>\n

For example, by the end of 2015, the consensus forecast for unemployment by the end of 2016 was 9.1%, according to\u00a0Focus Economics<\/a>. On average, economists essentially expected the unemployment rate to remain flat for the year. A huge miss, when in fact the unemployment rate soared by 3.1 percentage points in the four quarters through January.<\/p>\n

At the time, they figured that the unemployment rate would drop to 8.8% by the end of 2017. It is now clear that it would take a miracle to accomplish that.<\/p>\n

The report also pointed out:<\/p>\n