{"id":21991,"date":"2016-10-16T11:40:09","date_gmt":"2016-10-16T16:40:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21991"},"modified":"2016-10-16T11:41:32","modified_gmt":"2016-10-16T16:41:32","slug":"theres-no-plateau-in-a-housing-bubble-not-even-in-canada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21991","title":{"rendered":"There\u2019s No Plateau in a Housing Bubble, Not Even in Canada"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/2016\/10\/13\/no-plateau-house-price-bubble-vancouver-toronto-canada\/\">There\u2019s No Plateau in a Housing Bubble, Not Even in Canada<\/a><\/h3>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p><strong>Vancouver in turmoil, Toronto spikes.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Canadian house prices jumped 11.7% in September from a year ago, according to The Teranet\u2013National Bank National Composite House Price Index released today. But the index papers beautifully over the dynamics in each metro.<\/p>\n<p>In six of the 11 metro markets of\u00a0the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.housepriceindex.ca\/\" target=\"_blank\">index<\/a>, prices have been languishing or even declining over the past couple of years, as they\u2019ve hit the wall of reality after often stupendous price gains in the prior decade: Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Quebec City, Halifax, and Ottawa-Gatineau.<\/p>\n<p>In the two largest markets \u2013 Toronto and Vancouver, which combined account for 54% of the index \u2013 prices have blown through the roof. Both markets are among the hottest, most over-priced housing bubbles in the world. UBS recently ranked Vancouver Number 1 globally on that honor roll.<\/p>\n<p>But\u00a0suddenly the dynamics have changed.<\/p>\n<p>Vancouver\u2019s housing market is in turmoil, to use a mild word, as sales have crashed, after the implementation of a real-estate transfer tax this summer by British Columbia, aimed squarely at non-resident investors. In Vancouver, those investors are mostly Chinese. And where do these folks now go to inflate prices? Toronto.<\/p>\n<p>Still, the national house price index (red line, right scale), after the 11.7% jump over the past 12 months (blue columns, left scale), has\u00a0doubled since 2005!<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-27328\" src=\"http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Canada-house-price-index-2016-09.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Canada-house-price-index-2016-09.png 520x, http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Canada-house-price-index-2016-09-260x189.png 260x, http:\/\/wolfstreet.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/Canada-house-price-index-2016-09-160x116.png 160x\" alt=\"canada-house-price-index-2016-09\" width=\"520\" height=\"377\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The index, similar to the Case-Shiller Home Price index in the US, is based on repeat sales. It looks at properties that sold at least twice over the years to establish \u201csales pairs.\u201d It then uses a proprietary formula to deduct price changes from these transactions and extrapolate them into an index for each of the 11 markets and nationally. It\u2019s not perfect, but it offers an alternative view to median prices or Canada\u2019s \u201cbenchmark\u201d prices.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There\u2019s No Plateau in a Housing Bubble, Not Even in Canada Vancouver in turmoil, Toronto spikes. Canadian house prices jumped 11.7% in September from a year ago, according to The Teranet\u2013National Bank National Composite House Price Index released today. But the index papers beautifully over the dynamics in each metro. In six of the 11 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[103,14460,14461,406,803,1340,4254,4255],"class_list":["post-21991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economics","tag-canada","tag-canadian-housing-bubble","tag-case-shiller-home-price-index","tag-housing-bubble","tag-toronto","tag-vancouver","tag-wolf-richter","tag-wolfstreet"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21991","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21991"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21991\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21995,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21991\/revisions\/21995"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21991"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21991"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21991"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}