{"id":21895,"date":"2016-10-01T16:46:08","date_gmt":"2016-10-01T21:46:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21895"},"modified":"2016-10-01T16:46:08","modified_gmt":"2016-10-01T21:46:08","slug":"texas-oil-and-natural-gas-update-sept-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21895","title":{"rendered":"Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"<header>\n<h3 class=\"entry-title\"><a href=\"http:\/\/peakoilbarrel.com\/texas-oil-and-natural-gas-update-sept-2016\/\">Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016<\/a><\/h3>\n<div class=\"entry-meta\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160926a.gif\" alt=\"TXchart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/div>\n<\/header>\n<div class=\"entry-content\">\n<p>Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas.\u00a0 The most recent month\u2019s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% of the final value). The June EIA estimate is 240 kb\/d lower than Dean\u2019s estimate (about 7% too low).<span id=\"more-13572\"><\/span>\u00a0 The numbers above the lines are for Dean\u2019s estimate and the numbers below the lines are the EIA estimates for each month.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160926b.gif\" alt=\"TXchart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The change in the correction factors over time is shown in the chart above in kb\/d, this amount is added to the RRC estimate to get the \u201ccorrected\u201d output given by Dean\u2019s estimate. The average is the April 2014 to July 2016 average shown by the dotted lines (T and T-1 only). T is the most recent month reported, T-1 is the month before month T, etc.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/sites.google.com\/site\/dc78image\/images\/blog160926c.gif\" alt=\"TXchart\/\" border=\"0\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The chart above shows how Dean\u2019s estimates have changed over time, wth estimates from Jan 2015 to July 2016.\u00a0\u00a0 I have dropped the final 3 data points from each of the estimates, except for July 2016 where only the final month (July 2016) was dropped. Most months there was a tendency to underestimate output (except for the final 3 months of the estimate which is not shown in most cases). March 2016 was a notable exception, but even in that month\u2019s estimate output was only too high by 0.6% relative to the July estimate after the most recent 3 months are dropped. By contrast the Nov 2015 estimate was 1.6% too low. The final 2 points of the July 2016 estimate in the chart above might be high or low by a few percent, but the April 2016 data point of 3434 kb\/d for TX C+C output is likely to be within 1% of the final value.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;click on the above link to read the rest of the article&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Texas Oil and Natural Gas Update- Sept 2016 Dean has provided his monthly update for Texas Oil and Natural Gas.\u00a0 The most recent month\u2019s estimate is often volatile and may be ignored, the June and May estimates are likely pretty good (within 1% and 2%), the April 2016 estimate is likely to be robust(within 1% [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[11379,554,588,6245,2063],"class_list":["post-21895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-dennis-coyne","tag-natural-gas","tag-oil","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-texas"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21895","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21895"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21895\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21896,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21895\/revisions\/21896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}