{"id":21851,"date":"2016-09-25T19:12:07","date_gmt":"2016-09-26T00:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21851"},"modified":"2016-09-25T19:12:07","modified_gmt":"2016-09-26T00:12:07","slug":"mexico-china-and-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/?p=21851","title":{"rendered":"Mexico, China and Beyond"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mexico, China and Beyond<\/a><\/h3>\n
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Ron Patterson\u2019s\u00a0post<\/a>\u00a0asking if China\u2019s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico
\nwhich also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico\u2019s oil production peaked in 2004\u00a0and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate\u00a0of 9 percent in 2008. China\u2019s oil production has fallen 10% from its peak in 2015. Part of\u00a0that is oil price-related as the Daqing oil field has an operating cost of $46 per barrel and\u00a0could reverse as the oil price rises. The comparison of China and Mexico with a projection to\u00a02023 is shown in the following figure:<\/p>\n

\"da-1\"<\/p>\n

The production histories tracked each other from 1965 until they parted ways in 2005. Themainstay of Mexican production had been the Cantarell field as shown by this graph from\u00a0The Economist<\/a>\u00a0with data up to 2011:<\/p>\n

\"da-2\"<\/p>\n

Cantarell production had been pumped up with nitrogen injection until sudden collapse in2005. Part of the decline from Cantarell was offset by increased production from Ku-Maloob-Zaap. Mexico is now producing slightly more oil than it consumes. In the absence of\u00a0successful privately funded oil exploration from here, Mexico will become an importer of\u00a0both oil and food.<\/p>\n

A good description of the Chinese oil production industry is provided by a\u00a0paper<\/a>\u00a0by Aleklett,\u00a0from the University of Uppsala, et al from 2010 using data up to 2007. One field, Daqing\u00a0discovered in 1959, had been producing about a million barrels per day for close to 30 years:<\/p>\n

\"da-3\"<\/p>\n

Table 2 from that paper is reproduced following. It shows that only one of the Chinese giant\u00a0oilfields would not have entered decline by 2015:<\/p>\n

\"da-4\"<\/p>\n

…click on the above link to read the rest of the article…<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mexico, China and Beyond Ron Patterson\u2019s\u00a0post\u00a0asking if China\u2019s oil production has peaked reminded me of Mexico which also produces mainly from supergiant fields. Mexico\u2019s oil production peaked in 2004\u00a0and has averaged a 3.5 percent per annum decline rate since, with a peak yearly decline rate\u00a0of 9 percent in 2008. China\u2019s oil production has fallen 10% […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[130,14389,517,595,617,6245,6074],"class_list":["post-21851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-2","tag-china","tag-david-archibald","tag-mexico","tag-oil-production","tag-peak-oil","tag-peak-oil-barrel","tag-ron-patterson"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21851","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=21851"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21851\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21852,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21851\/revisions\/21852"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=21851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=21851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/olduvai.ca\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=21851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}